The Six Nations kicks off this weekend and will be viewed with particular interest against the backdrop of this year’s Rugby World Cup (RWC). It will of course provide a platform on which to lay bare form and fitness as teams sharpen their state of readiness ahead of the global tournament that kicks off in September in France.
As much as some will use the tournament as a portent for what will transpire later this year, the harsh reality is the Five, or since 2000, Six Nations winners rarely go on to play on the game’s best lit stage later the same year. On only three occasions since the inception of the RWC in 1987, has the team crowned Europe’s best reached the final of the RWC a few months later.
Moreover, since the advent of the professional game in 1996, it has happened just once and that was back in 2003 when England became the only RWC winners from the northern hemisphere.
In the past few years, however, as the migration of players and coaches intensifies north, there has been a shift in the balance of power. Slowly but surely the tectonic plates have moved and where not too long ago one might have boldly predicted an All Blacks, Springbok or even Wallabies triumph at the RWC, this year's tournament will probably be as open as it has ever been.
Ireland and France are the world’s top two ranked teams but winning a RWC requires a lot more than routinely winning autumn internationals in the northern hemisphere, or the odd series mid-year in the south.
The grind of four pool matches, two knockout games and a final have proved too much for Europe's best over the past 20 years.
In 1987 France followed up their Five Nations win with an inspiring performance at the inaugural RWC in New Zealand. They beat Australia in an epic semifinal, remembered for Serge Blanco’s match-winning surge for the try line in the closing minutes.
The grind of four pool matches, two knock-out games and a final have proved too much for Europe's best over the past 20 years.
Four years later England also marched to the final, though their methods were profoundly prosaic. A well-drilled pack, stout defence and a solid kicking game got them to the final where they dragged Australia into the cellar but failed to come out on top. At the 1995 RWC they again met Australia, though this time in the quarterfinal in Cape Town. A Rob Andrew drop goal helped seal a place in the semifinals but they duly got bulldozed by Jonah Lomu in the semis.
Scotland won the last Five Nations tournament in 1999 but their performance in the RWC of that year fell short. They finished runners up behind SA in their pool and had to play Samoa in a play-off match to reach the quarterfinals. They won that game but predictably made their exit when New Zealand beat them in the quarters.
England made a clean-sweep in 2003. They won the Six Nations but in so doing, also bagged a Grand Slam, Triple Crown, Calcutta Cup and Millennium Trophy. Later that year they edged the Wallabies in a tense final of the RWC in Sydney.
France did exactly the opposite in 2007 when they hosted the RWC. They failed to take any of their Six Nations momentum into the RWC and lost the opening game to Argentina. Though they regrouped and famously beat New Zealand in the quarters they suffered a painful defeat in Paris to old foes England in the semis.
The 2011 RWC in New Zealand did not treat Six Nations champions England well. Though they progressed comfortably enough from the pool stages, their actions during a Sunday night excursion in Queenstown helped derail their campaign. They attracted many unwanted headlines for revelling at a bar called Altitude where a dwarf tossing contest was the feature attraction. They had so much negative press by the time they headed for their quarterfinal in Auckland it was little surprise they came up short against France, who incidentally suffered the indignity of losing to Tonga in the pool stages.
Four years on Ireland surged to the Six Nations title but could not shake their RWC curse months later. They won their pool by beating France convincingly but were stunned in the quarterfinals by Argentina who at times ran amok. Ireland are yet to make it beyond the RWC quarterfinals.
Wales came up trumps in the 2019 Six Nations and topped their pool in the RWC in Japan. They were perhaps fortunate to get past France in the quarters and gave the Boks a run for their money before a nerveless Handré Pollard penalty knocked them out in the semis.
Six Nations success is no guarantee to RWC glory but it is up to the Springboks and their southern hemisphere cohorts to keep it that way.
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