It is perhaps a twist of irony that the least fancied team in the semifinals of the Rugby World Cup is the only one unbeaten.
England announced themselves as semifinalists beating Fiji 30-24 in a tense clash in Marseille on Saturday despite being given little chance of lifting the Webb Ellis Cup before and during this competition. On Saturday, however, they have a shot at reaching a fifth final.
The statistics from the quarterfinals, though, suggest they will have to make marked improvements if they are going to beat the Springboks at Stade de France on Saturday or go all the way in this tournament.
The statistics from the quarterfinals don't paint a bleak picture for the Red Roses, but it is not one that will leave them overly optimistic.
The Boks' 162 tackles beating France is the most they have made in the tournament so far and that match also saw them put in the most dominant tackles (14.4), 4.8 more than the next highest by a quarterfinal team.
South Africa, though limited in the number of line breaks and carries, proved potent when opportunity beckoned. Unlike their pool match against Ireland in which they were left to lament several near misses, they were ruthless against France. For every entry into the opposition 22 they scored an average of 3.25 points, compared with France’s average of 2.
England were the least efficient on that score. They were the only team to win their quarterfinal with a lower red zone efficiency than their opponents, 2.4 points per entry compared with Fiji’s 3 in the 30-24 victory in Marseille.
England also made fewer metres (468.8) and offloads (5.4) of the final four teams. While they made the second most line breaks with seven, that was just 0.8 more than the fourth-placed Springboks and half that of New Zealand.
There is already the expectation that ruck speed will be compromised in Saturday’s semifinal at Stade de France. England’s average is a pedestrian 4.79 seconds, while South Africa were only 0.89 seconds faster.
England, however, will look to No 8 Ben Earls to give them more of the thrust that has characterised his World Cup. Earls tops the charts for England with the most carries (48), metres made (372), line breaks (five) and most defenders beaten (17).
Marcus Smith, hoping to recover from injury, is second in all those categories with 32 carries, 325 metres made, four line breaks and 13 defenders beaten.
Unsurprisingly, the All Blacks boasted the best tackle success rate (87%) in their quarterfinal, but the Boks made the most dominant tackles.
Until the quarterfinal, the All Blacks made the fewest tackles per game of any team (89.3), but to deny Ireland they had to make the second most in the tournament.
The nice thing was the mix of really good attacking stuff and really courageous defensive stuff.
— All Blacks coach Ian Foster
Ian Foster’s side were top for every attacking metric out of the four teams left, with the most carries (131.8), metres made (694.4), clean breaks (14.0 — double that of the next best), defenders beaten (35.6), offloads (8.2), gainline success (63%), collision success (41%) and positive outcomes (76%), down to turning the ball over the least (11.8).
“The nice thing was the mix of really good attacking stuff and really courageous defensive stuff,” said Foster after their quarterfinal win against Ireland.
Argentina coach Michael Cheika will be well aware the All Blacks appear to be clicking at the right time.
Against Wales, Los Pumas were second only to New Zealand for carries (125.8) and defenders beaten (30.2). They came away with 4.33 points for every visit to the Wales 22, compared with 2.33 for their opponents.
Going into the quarterfinal, they had the second fastest average ruck speed of the tournament (3.37 seconds) and managed to improve that against Wales to 3.22 seconds, meaning their average now (3.35 seconds) is the fastest of the four semifinalists.
Of the remaining teams, Argentina rank fourth for gainline success (51%), collision success (37%) and tackle success (84%).
“In the build-up we didn't play a lot of games,” said Cheika about the Pumas' improvement through the tournament. “We knew the first game [against England] would be a bit rough for us. We learnt a lot because there were a lot of first-time World Cuppers in there.”
In their semifinal against the All Blacks on Friday they will have to play a lot better than in their opener against England.
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