Spit & Polish : 06 November 2011

The Arab Spring will surely prompt change in Africa, but will it lead to a chilly winter?

THERE'S an old saying that goes "needs must when the Devil drives" and it popped into my head a couple of weeks ago, as I watched President Zuma going on the offensive, sacking a couple of lame-duck ministers whose agendas had become too personal and - as some might argue - too profitable.

He finally dealt with General Bheki Cele, a move that elicited a quiet "Yay!" from my corner. Before that, it was rumoured that Cele was in line for a cushy diplomatic post, in what looked like an expedient "out of sight, out of mind" solution.

Instead, Cele was suspended - on full pay, it goes without saying - but at least he has been stopped in his murky tracks, and other law-enforcers who followed his style might stop to reconsider their future.

Zuma's actions were also rewarded by media commentators, who were cautiously impressed by his actions. Could one call it a clean sweep? Like many South Africans, I wonder if this is truly the start of a much-needed political clean-up?

The questions is this: Is there a broom big enough to do a proper clean-out, or is it a deft distraction that leads us to look the other way while dirt is being swept under the carpet?

The President also scored points with his announcement that there will be renewed focus on the multibillion-rand arms deal.

It has been a festering sore in South Africa's democracy since 2000, when former president Thabo Mbeki began - very slowly - to probe the allegations of corruption associated with the arms deal.

Nonetheless, the "wheels of justice", as the saying goes, "grind slowly, yet they grind exceeding fine", and we should remember that while those South African wheels were slowly turning, the world was being turned upside down.

We had the 9/11 bombings in the US in 2001; the London bombings on July7 2005; the execution of Saddam Hussein in December 2006 and now the death of Muammar Gaddafi.

It seems that the Arab Spring has brought a sense of nascent freedom, even though it has been achieved in situations of chaos and collapse.

So, to see the creaky revival of the arms deal slowly rolling into court 12 years later, suggests that something is changing. But will it be for the better or the worse? My sense is that the consequences of the Arab Spring have rattled President Zuma.

He did visit Gaddafi on a diplomatic mission early on in the conflict, but it altered nothing in that country's fate. Zuma even suggested that Gaddafi might retire in exile in South Africa, which would have been like lighting a match in a fireworks factory.

Zuma also publicly deplored the death of Gaddafi, and the conditions in which he died, but his opinion was overshadowed by a very different opinion, expressed loudly and emphatically by a liberated nation that might finally have a chance to cast off a feudal political system and to catch up with the rest of the world.

But the Arab Spring is not yet over. Journalists are speculating about the Syrian people's opposition to the harsh rule of Bashar Al-Assad, a leader who has never hesitated to inflict brutal treatment on his citizens.

Similar events have occurred in Yemen, Bahrain and other countries and when - or if - the upheaval finally stops, I believe we will see dramatic changes for good or ill.

As the Baron de Rothschild said, as the French Revolution descended into bloodshed: "When there is blood in the streets - buy property." And if that property happens have oil under it, so much the better.

Most of the chaos today has to do with oil, the arms trade and the global recession, and no one can really believe that the powerful western nations have benign intentions for these woebegone countries.

Those events are also going to have a dramatic impact on the African Union, which describes itself as "an organisation aimed at economic integration and social development, which should lead to political unity".

While the Arab Spring seems, for now, to be producing positive results in the north, down south there are other tyrants to be scrutinised.

The catastrophe of Robert Mugabe's rule has dragged on for years. Is it possible that we will see an "African Spring" that will topple that tyrant, along with various other warlords and tribal monarchs?

In Swaziland King Mswati III has 11 wives and recently spent $15-million to renovate three of his palaces. Forbes Magazine regularly places him on their annual "rich list", but you have to wonder how much of his bounty will filter down to its citizens.

Now we are headed for another election in South Africa and there is a growing debate about Zuma, his latest actions notwithstanding.

As the old saying goes, "Out of Africa, always something new". We will have to wait and see if the proverbial Spring turns into an unusually cold Winter.