Payback time

President Jacob Zuma has only a few days in which to decide who will be in his new cabinet - and it will be a precarious balancing act.

Zuma and the top six leaders of the ANC are expected to meet the party's national working committee soon to discuss a number of key issues, including which ministers will remain in his cabinet and who will be axed.

By far the easiest decision for him will be choosing his deputy, a position most likely to go to Cyril Ramaphosa.

Zuma will also have to wade through the minefield of competing factional interests and the internal dynamics of the tripartite alliance, made up of the ANC, the SA Communist Party and labour federation Cosatu.

Analysts yesterday said that Zuma's decision would be influenced by many factors but rewarding his staunchest supporters would prevail.

ANC secretary-general Gwede Mantashe warned yesterday: "It's dangerous to punt certain ministers . We've always said: 'Don't punt people because you are actually hurting that person'."

Analysts believe that among the strongest contenders for a cabinet job are senior figures in the labour movement. But the party, they say, will be careful to avoid accusations that it is discarding those who opposed the Zuma faction at the ANC's elective conference in Mangaung in 2012.

The ANC's 62.15% victory in last week's election comes with the assurance that the party's centrepiece policy document, the National Development Plan, will be implemented. But it is not known whether Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan will head the economics cluster of ministries in charge of that task.

Analyst Steven Friedman believes Gordhan will play a major role in the new administration.

"The ANC is behaving . as if he will have some prominent role in the government. He wasn't on the [party's national executive committee] before but he has since been elected and was nominated higher up on the candidate list to parliament. Why would he not return?" asked Friedman.

He said Gordhan, unlike his rumoured successor, Tito Mboweni, had a unifying air about him and knew how to implement policy. But sections of labour have expressed their dislike of Gordhan.

"I can't see anyone who is appointed finance minister to implement the kinds of policies that have been implemented over the past 20 years being liked by the unions. It was to be expected."

Sports Minister Fikile Mbalula and Arts and Culture Minister Paul Mashatile might also be reassigned. But Mbalula proved popular with ANC branches, which nominated him higher up on the party's parliamentary list. Mashatile has the provincial ANC chairmanship from which to weave his way back to active politics.

Mbalula and Mashatile's ministries are the subject of a planned merger but it is not known who will lead the amalgamated department.

Friedman warned that Zuma would be sending the wrong signal if either Mbalula or Mashatile found himself out of a job.

"If he gets rid of them, he is asking for trouble."

But Zuma also needs to reward his supporters.

"I think the outcome [of Zuma's cabinet choices] will depend on what the president thinks he needs to do to balance factions in the ANC. That has been his approach," said Friedman.

Independent analyst Somadoda Fikeni added: "There are issues of loyalty and seniority in the ANC that will determine how the president makes up his mind.

"I would not be surprised if key figures in the labour movement find themselves in the cabinet."

The ANC refused to comment on Zuma's post-election cabinet but it has been reported that the changes would involve merging some departments, including land and agriculture, and the departments of women, children and people with disabilities, and of social development.