Spanish demise a warning for Boks

The 2014 World Cup has taken shape and its previously all-conquering Spanish champions were bundled out within two matches in what is the worst performance by a defending champion in the history of the tournament.

Their failure exposes some harsh realities regarding philosophical and tactical advantages and the inevitable ticking of sport's biological clock.

Philosophically, Spain's success was built around the tiki-taka style, described by Pep Guardiola as "I get the ball, I pass the ball, I get the ball, I pass the ball". This style, combined with an aggressive pressing game to deny the opposition sustained periods of possession, proved unstoppable. But two things always happen to erode any tactical approach's ruthless effectiveness, and there were signs of both for Spain.

First, other teams figure it out. It was once said in the military that you cannot send a messenger along the same route twice, even if he was successful the first time. The same is true in high-performance sport.

Detailed analysis is now so integral to performance that the moment your path to success is identified, it will be blocked, forcing innovation.

Statistics from ProZone suggest that this happened to Spain in 2014. At the 2010 World Cup and 2012 Euro Championships, Spain were successful with 87% and 89% of their attempted passes, and only 38% and 36% of those passes were attempted first time.

Compare 2014 - pass success was down to 85%, but 44% of passes were played first time. This suggests pressure from opponents, who have forced Spain into rushed, first-time passes, and thus lowered accuracy and reduced effectiveness. This intense pressure was a feature from both Holland and Chile in their victories.

The second issue is the age of the squad, the core of which was present throughout Spain's reign. The ability to execute a plan that requires intense movement is dependent on speed, fitness and thus hunger, and so when these drop, even by 5%, execution will suffer. Theirs is a physically demanding tactical approach, and is thus more vulnerable to fatigue and age than most.

Remember also that it takes two or three years to build a team capable of major success - Jake White emphasised that his starting 15 in the 2007 Rugby World Cup final had 668 Test matches between them. That didn't happen overnight. Similarly, for Spain, the journey began in 2005. Nine years is a long time in elite sport, and partly explains why no team has defended a World Cup since 1962, and no rugby team has done it.

For coaches who inherit or lead a winning team, the greatest challenge is to balance the reliance on past success with future exploration of change. Spain's Vincente Del Bosque has received criticism for his failure to expose young talent sooner, to replace old legs with new energy and creativity. But when you consider what that involves, it means dropping players who have earned iconic status, and the backlash against the coach would be extreme. Imagine if it doesn't work. Those same critics would turn on the coach for abandoning winning principles, for being reckless. And so, it becomes human nature to persist with the tried and tested, usually to the detriment of performance, because the duration between big tournaments often turns out to be a bridge too far.

Is there a lesson in this for South Africa? Well, I watch the selection of the Springboks as we build towards the 2015 Rugby World Cup, and the team is slowly morphing back into a combination of the legendary Bulls and Bok teams that won Super rugby and world titles in 2007.

While this is not necessarily bad, it does mean that by November 2015, those players will be pushing eight years at the very top, and as Spain (and others) have shown, that's risky territory for longevity. We're helped by the fact that some players have had extended breaks, either enforced through injury or chosen through retirement or extended periods overseas, but the management of those players, who aren't immune to ageing, will be crucial between now and the World Cup.

We look to be in an excellent place to mount a real challenge for glory. But as Spain have shown, when the end comes, it comes quickly. Let's hope we hold it off for one more year.