Hi ho, hi ho, it's off to work I still go

13 November 2014 - 02:04 By David Shapiro
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DAVID SHAPIRO: Deputy chairman of Sasfin Securities
DAVID SHAPIRO: Deputy chairman of Sasfin Securities
Image: SUPPLIED

Yesterday was my 67th birthday.

When I began my working life as an articled clerk for the accounting firm Schwartz Fine back in January 1969, a person my age was considered a fossil, far too old for active duty. Twenty years ago, when our brokerage was purchased by the French banking behemoth Société Générale, our bosses couldn't wait for their 60th birthdays and the lavish retirement packages that followed. The thought of working one day longer than they had to wasn't even a remote consideration.

I couldn't think of anything worse at present than having to stop working. Physically I still have the endurance to run a marathon and the strength to cross Central Park with a grandchild on my shoulders. I still drive above the speed limit, can name all the kids in my Grade 2 class photo, effortlessly download hits from iTunes and have no trouble calculating a company's debt to equity ratio without turning to a young colleague for help.

But apart from believing I have the mental and physical agility to continue working a full day without support from resveratrol, polyphenol or any other anti-ageing nutrients, it's the appeal, fascination and prospects of global equity markets that keep my passion alive.

In the 25 years since the Berlin Wall fell, the world economy has transformed dramatically, revolutionised by the opening of new markets, the invention of the internet and the upside of major advancements in communications and technology. The innovation sparked by these events continues to shape our lives and choices and is set to endure for some years to come, opening a treasure trove of opportunities for smart and insightful investors.

In the US, fracking will convert the economy from a major importer of oil to the world's largest energy producer. As output increases, falling oil prices will reduce the cost of petrol and electricity, putting millions of extra dollars in the pockets of consumers. The downside of this, though, is that lower oil prices could raise the risk of civil disorder in a number of countries in South America, Africa and the Middle East that rely heavily on the export of crude to fund spending.

While oil prices tumble, we cannot overlook societies' commitment to advancing the search for renewable energy sources, and there is a real possibility that in a decade or so from now our vehicles could be powered by something other than fossil fuel.

America still spends more money on research and development than any other nation, and for that reason it will continue to lead the way in most sciences, particularly communication, space travel, defence and health, but we can't ignore the Europeans.

Europe may resemble an historic theme park, but groups like Philips spend billions annually developing medical equipment that will improve diagnosis of diseases and assist recovery. Siemens is focusing on robotics for the factory floor and pharmaceutical giants pursue cures for cancer, diabetes, hypertension, depression and other chronic illnesses.

China's economy might be slowing down, but 7% annual growth for a country with a population of more than one billion is still sufficient to lift huge masses of people into middle class, underpinning demand for air travel, vehicles and Goyard handbags that more than likely will be bought on an e-commerce website with the latest smartphone.

There are also negative undercurrents. In the US, parents are turning their children away from sugar products, thumping iconic brands such as Coke and Pepsi. Young boys, put off by drawn-out baseball and football games, are supporting soccer instead. Elitist golf, too, is losing its glamour as young couples choose to share their lives.

I'm often challenged on the virtues of selecting a passive investment, like an exchange traded fund or unit trust, over a portfolio of individual companies. For me it's like asking your older brother to write your economics assignment. You score high marks but miss out on the learning and experience that comes with doing your own research and analysis. It's that fulfilment which makes me happy to keep going to work each day.

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