Early indications are that there will be another decrease in the fuel price next month, pushing down inflation to well within the Reserve Bank's target range and making an interest rate increase later this month less likely.
At midnight tonight the petrol price will fall by R1.27 a litre for 93-octane, R1.23 for 95-octane and R1.04 for diesel after another month of declining global oil prices.
Though it is very early in the month, data from the Central Energy Fund show that motorists are still paying more at the pump than they should. According to the fund's daily update, the "over-recovery" was as much as R1.53 a litre on Friday. But adjustments to the fuel price are made monthly and motorists will have to hold thumbs that the rand stands its ground against the major currencies until January 30.
The rand traded weaker than R11.70 yesterday against the dollar. But in both November and December the fall of the rand was more than compensated for by plummeting oil prices.
Fuel prices are a big contributor to the basket of goods Statistics SA uses to measure inflation. The sharp fall will rein in inflation, according to Peter Worthington and Miyelani Maluleke, analysts with Barclays Capital.
Worthington and Maluleke expect consumer inflation to be 4.7% in January, comfortably within the Reserve Bank's target of 3% to 6%.
"Headline inflation is likely to ease further in the first half of 2015, probably touching 3.5% year-on-year by April," they said yesterday.
The Reserve Bank's monetary policy committee will hold its two-monthly meeting later this month and announce its interest rate decision on the 29th.
Just R20 for the first month. Support independent journalism by subscribing to our digital news package. 
