Last week Tuesday the rand gained as much as 1.5% against the dollar on a Bloomberg report that the ANC's national executive committee would debate a motion of no confidence in President Jacob Zuma at its meeting at the weekend.
The currency lost some of that gain yesterday as it became clear Zuma was not going anywhere any time soon. Economist Dawie Roodt said politics and the markets were so intertwined that one could almost simply watch the rand-dollar exchange rate to know what Zuma's position is.
The last NEC meeting was the second time in six months he survived a motion of no confidence debate at the ruling party's meeting of its top leaders. Former tourism minister Derek Hanekom, who has since been booted out of cabinet with Pravin Gordhan and Mcebisi Jonas, proposed it in December. Joel Netshitenzhe, who was a key strategist for ousted president Thabo Mbeki, tabled it again on Saturday evening.
Those anti Zuma should know better than to get excited at the prospect of him being removed. History has shown he is the ultimate political survivor.
Even after being fired as deputy president in 2005, Zuma made a comeback in 2007 when he was elected ANC president - and two years later Mbeki was asked to step down. At the time Mbeki was accused of betraying everything Nelson Mandela had stood for. It was ironic that Mbeki was the one who fired Zuma because Zuma was implicated in the corruption trial of his former financial adviser, Schabir Shaik.
It was Mbeki's strategist who headed last weekend's bid to oust Zuma, again amid new claims of corruption, sparking hope of political change.
Ever-optimistic South Africans started talking excitedly again about the prospect of his removal. Even the rand showed optimism at the vaguest possibility of a JZ departure.
We should know better by now.
But hope springs eternal.
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