The battle for the soul of SA, plus five talking points from ‘Vrye Weekblad’

We are on the verge of a slippery slope to failed state status. Poverty and unemployment are at record levels. Our stability is under threat. 

There’s only one reason for South Africans not to be in the doldrums (or buying plane tickets to New Zealand): there is a good chance the ANC will get less than 50% in the general elections in just over two years.

The light at the end of the tunnel is that SA will then be governed by a coalition. If it is an ANC/EFF coalition, the light will be an oncoming train. Then you may as well go and buy an All Black jersey now.

The year 2024 will determine who wins the battle for the soul of SA. 

Will such a coalition government consist of parties that support constitutionality, the rule of law, division between party and state and the basic market economy, or will the race nationalists, the Soviet-type socialists, the land grabbers, the cadre deployers and the autocrats dominate? 

If the ANC again gets around 47% of the vote, they may find the extra 4% from a number of small parties. If it falls nearer to 40%, it will have to form a coalition with one of the three bigger parties: the DA, EFF or ActionSA (if its growth continues). If the EFF’s growth is significant — nearer to 20% than 11%, which seems unlikely — it will obviously be in a stronger negotiating position.   

I’m under the impression President Cyril Ramaphosa would prefer to lead a coalition of constitutional, moderate social democrats if his party doesn’t get an outright majority. We may assume he will be re-elected as ANC president in December. There is simply no credible opponent. We may also assume the ANC will be the single strongest party after 2024. 

The question is whether the ANC NEC and top six elected in December will allow Ramaphosa to form a coalition with anyone other than the EFF. It appears the RET faction has accepted another Ramaphosa term and is focusing on other key positions. The RET faction speaks the EFF’s language and party leader Julius Malema still has many friends and influence inside the ANC. 

We can expect Malema to see 2024 as a step closer to his dream of becoming president. He plays the populist vote better than anyone else.

The DA will have to reposition itself and preferably find new leaders. With Helen Zille and John Steenhuisen at the helm, the party is hardly a sexy dance partner.

ActionSA, the IFP, VF Plus and other parties will not only have to grow but also learn to work together and prepare voters for politics of a new kind. 

The rest of us, civil society, will have to build a consensus that the ANC no longer deserves to rule SA by themselves, that we have to reimagine a new SA where the Constitution is respected and the rulers serve the voters.

Hold on to your Springbok jersey.

Read the full article and more news, analysis and interviews in this Friday’s edition of Vrye Weekblad. 

Must-read articles in this week’s Vrye Weekblad

>> Browse the full March 18 edition

THE WEEK IN POLITICS | Max du Preez writes about Naspers’ Chinese and Russian nightmares, judge Raymond Zondo who will fix the judiciary, and former North West premier Supra Mahumapelo, who swallowed a dictionary.

ABOUT PUTIN’S CHEF | The Russian mercenaries who were tasked with killing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy have already left a trail of blood all the way from Syria to Mali and the Central African Republic. And it looks like they want to expand their hold on weak governments in Afrika. 

FREE TO READ — LONG ROAD FROM COVID | Long Covid-19 is one of the biggest mysteries around this virus. While most people recover within weeks, others have symptoms that won’t go away. We take a look at the research.

THE LADY BEHIND THE QUESTION MARK | Artist Valerie Desmore was always overlooked in SA and the UK. She was also a light-skinned woman whose family experienced all the violence of racial discrimination. 

9 BOOKS YOU  HAVE TO READ | We all hate having to choose our favourite books. There are way too many, libraries full, that want to be added to the list, but we’ll try.