“This is a significant revision of the TDP 2021, which based its assumptions for new generation capacity on the Integrated Resource Plan of 2019 (IRP2019), which proposed about 30GW of new capacity by 2030,” Eskom said.
To accommodate this additional capacity, and on the assumption that obstacles to the implementation of the rollout plan are removed, the transmission infrastructure would need to be augmented by about 14,200km of extra-high voltage lines and 170 transformers by 2032.
“Given uncertainty in the longer term, and noting the IRP, as a policy document, is being updated, Eskom is placing a strong focus on the implementation of projects over the next five years,” it said.
“The analysis carried out reflects a requirement of about 2,890km of extra-high voltage lines and 60 transformers requiring a capital investment of R72.2bn by FY2027. This requires that some challenges beyond Eskom’s control, such as the lead time to obtain servitudes, among other relevant authorisations, as well as the resource capacity in the country, be urgently addressed.”
The updated TDP takes into account the deterioration of the energy availability factor of the Eskom coal-powered fleet, which was a key factor in the drafting of the IRP2019.
Eskom said the additional generation capacity requirements also take into account its 2035 corporate strategy and have considered the connection applications received from the various procurement programmes by the department of mineral resources & energy (DMRE) and applications received from the non-DMRE integration programmes, as well as input from renewable energy associations.
Accommodating this increased generation capacity means a reliable and adequate transmission system is needed to integrate and send the new capacity to load centres across the country, it said.
The TDP forum is held annually as part of Eskom’s transmission licence requirements issued by the National Energy Regulator of South Africa, which requires Eskom to publish a TDP every year.
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53GW of new generation capacity needed in next 10 years, says Eskom
Image: Bloomberg
About 53GW of new generation capacity, particularly from renewable energy sources including wind and solar, will be required for the period up to 2032 to ensure energy security in South Africa.
This emerged during Eskom's Transmission Development Plan (TDP) public forum on Thursday.
“The next five years are critical for security of supply,” Eskom MD for transmission Segomoco Scheppers said.
“If the TDP 2022 requirements to deliver an adequate transmission network capacity by 2027 are to be met, an investment of R72.2bn will be required to expand and strengthen the transmission grid over the next five years.
“Of this, R50.8bn is required for new capacity expansion projects to meet the reliability requirements, connection of new generation capacity and loads, as well as to acquire servitudes. A further R21.4bn is required to refurbish the existing asset base and for procurement of production equipment.”
The 53GW new additional power includes the current deficit of between 4,000MW and 6,000MW.
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“This is a significant revision of the TDP 2021, which based its assumptions for new generation capacity on the Integrated Resource Plan of 2019 (IRP2019), which proposed about 30GW of new capacity by 2030,” Eskom said.
To accommodate this additional capacity, and on the assumption that obstacles to the implementation of the rollout plan are removed, the transmission infrastructure would need to be augmented by about 14,200km of extra-high voltage lines and 170 transformers by 2032.
“Given uncertainty in the longer term, and noting the IRP, as a policy document, is being updated, Eskom is placing a strong focus on the implementation of projects over the next five years,” it said.
“The analysis carried out reflects a requirement of about 2,890km of extra-high voltage lines and 60 transformers requiring a capital investment of R72.2bn by FY2027. This requires that some challenges beyond Eskom’s control, such as the lead time to obtain servitudes, among other relevant authorisations, as well as the resource capacity in the country, be urgently addressed.”
The updated TDP takes into account the deterioration of the energy availability factor of the Eskom coal-powered fleet, which was a key factor in the drafting of the IRP2019.
Eskom said the additional generation capacity requirements also take into account its 2035 corporate strategy and have considered the connection applications received from the various procurement programmes by the department of mineral resources & energy (DMRE) and applications received from the non-DMRE integration programmes, as well as input from renewable energy associations.
Accommodating this increased generation capacity means a reliable and adequate transmission system is needed to integrate and send the new capacity to load centres across the country, it said.
The TDP forum is held annually as part of Eskom’s transmission licence requirements issued by the National Energy Regulator of South Africa, which requires Eskom to publish a TDP every year.
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