The private sector is lining up energy projects that would generate up to 20 gigawatts of power, according to Dr Crispian Olver, executive director of the Presidential Climate Commission (PCC).
He was speaking ahead of Friday’s National Colloquium that will review the PCC’s recommendations to the government on national electricity planning. The commission is an advisory body spearheading SA’s transition to a “low-emissions and climate-resilient economy”.
SA’s acceleration to low-carbon economy marks the “start of a major epochal shift in our economy and energy systems”, Olver told TimesLIVE Premium. The country already has projects with the potential to generate nearly “40% of our [current] total energy generation capacity” lined up.
“SA has now got 20 gigawatts of embedded generation energy projects lined up by the private sector, ready to come into the system. They are at various stages of development and don’t all yet have grid access.”
The commission has been engaging stakeholders around an investment plan to justly advance SA’s energy transition to a greener economy. “Where we can, we find consensus between what are often very conflicting positions,” he says.
The recommendations under discussion on Friday will cover SA’s electricity generation mix, governance, energy security, just energy transition investments, protecting communities and creating jobs under the just energy transition over the next five years.
“There is going to be a huge churn in employment, even though the transition will be jobs-positive in aggregate. All the models and research show that a low-carbon world is a more jobs-intensive, but they are not all in the same place at the same time and we need different skills sets.
“This has big implications. If you manage the transition haphazardly and don’t proactively build up your skills sets, you can cause a jobs bloodbath. You need to replace jobs in a structured, carefully planned way as we move out of big sectors like coal and transform the production of motor vehicles.
South Africa has now got 20 gigawatts of embedded generation energy projects lined up by the private sector ready to come into the system.
— Dr Crispian Olver, executive director of the Presidential Climate Commission
“You have to give workers a measure of income security in moving between jobs or having to relocate,” he says. “We are doing a lot of detailed studies on what a future labour market will look like, what skills are needed, and how to overhaul a dysfunctional skill development system to make it work better.”
President Cyril Ramaphosa released the R1.5-trillion just energy transition (JET) investment plan on November 4 last year, ahead of the global climate summit COP27 in Egypt.
Olver says the commission’s role goes beyond the environment to social and economic concerns, focused on “how to wind the economy onto a new path” and social justice.
SA’s commitment to reducing fossil fuel emissions to offset the climate crisis is a priority, but so is building resilience (adaptation) to cope with the fallout, including drought and extreme weather, says Olver.
The commission is championing investment in adaptation in three core areas: water security, food security and infrastructure and the built environment.
For example, South Africa is a water-scarce country, yet it loses more than a third of its clean water to leaks. “All of our cities are haemorrhaging, potable drinking water through broken infrastructure,” he says.
The leaks cost about R9bn a year, amounting to R90bn over 10 years, he says. “Fixing the infrastructure as an investment project is a no-brainer if you monetise the savings.
“Even as we bed down the just energy transition investment plan, we are thinking about the next phase of investment in adaptation,” he says. “This is part of what we are looking at, upfront investment in adaptation. A lot of these projects (such as water infrastructure or regenerative agriculture) are bankable with revenue streams, not grant-dependent projects.”
The commission, which also conducts independent monitoring and evaluation, will launch a State of Action climate report later this year.
“This will take a long hard look at all the stakeholders, not just government, but also business, unions and civil society, and how do we each measure up in terms of the commitments we have made,” Olver says.
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