Marshmallow eggs, chocolate bunnies and hot cross buns — the annual Easter shopping season is under way and could signal the start of a turnaround for retail in South Africa, according to new research.
A study by the Bureau for Market Research (BMR) predicts the retail sector will benefit from a R2.219bn boost in turnover over the Easter holiday, with positive macroeconomic trends expected to help sustain a recovery in retail sales throughout the year.
This comes after a difficult 2023, and is in line with the observations of FNB chief economist Mamello Matikinca-Ngwenya, who noted that significantly less load-shedding and a deceleration in inflation, particularly for food, were the likely reasons for improved consumer confidence during the first quarter of this year.
With inflation tapering and interest rates set to decline, retailers are likely to benefit from improved economic growth and consumer sentiment for the rest of the year
— Capital Connect CEO Steven Heilbron
“Heading into 2024, consumer sentiment is significantly higher compared to the -23 reading recorded during the first quarter of 2023 when stage 6 load-shedding, surging food prices and successive interest rate hikes rocked consumer confidence. This suggests that retail sales volumes could gradually recover from the dismal performance last year,” she said.
This was confirmed by new research conducted on behalf of Capital Connect, a fintech firm that offers business funding to South African retailers.
CEO Steven Heilbron said: “The Easter season holds promise for retailers that are able to capitalise on the latest consumer trends.”
With inflation tapering and interest rates set to decline, retailers, he said, were likely to benefit from improved economic growth and consumer sentiment for the rest of the year.
Massmart, conscious of South Africa's love for marshmallow chocolate eggs, had Easter products in stores as early as February.
Game and Makro price-matched on boxes of mallow eggs this year — coming in at R84.95 for a box of 36.
Katherine Madley, Massmart’s vice-president of marketing, said: “Over the years, our Easter campaign has focused on many deals, but we see that mallow eggs are an incredibly popular product with our customers at both Game and Makro.”
The iconic Beacon mmmMallow milk chocolate eggs have been an Easter favourite for years — having been sold in boxes of 48 until 2020 before re-emerging in smaller boxes of 36, without much of a change in price.
In 2018 a box of 48 eggs was cheapest at Pick n Pay, at R60.90. In 2019 Makro was cheapest at R74.95. In 2021 the standard price for the newly marketed box of 36 eggs was R79.99, but cheapest at Game at R64.99, dropping to R62 in 2022.
Spar, mindful of family budgets, has taken a different approach.
“This year, shoppers may find themselves opting for more budget-friendly food options, scaling back on expensive ingredients, or forgoing non-essential purchases altogether,” said Mpudi Maubane, communications manager for Spar Group.
“We’ve committed to helping South Africans save money with special deals on Easter treats and grocery essentials, like our Easter Feaster basket. This includes 2.5kg Spar refined white sugar, 750ml Spar sunflower cooking oil, 2.5kg Spar cake flour and 500g Spar margarine brick all for R99.”
Other retailers have taken to using the long weekend to offer picnics and Easter egg hunts, live music bashes, family activities and holiday packages.
The BMR research predicts some growth this year after a difficult 2023, when high interest rates, persistent inflation and low growth dampened consumer spending.
Year-on-year growth for general dealers is forecast at 1.5% compared to a 2.4% decline during 2023, with about R1.38bn in additional sales over Easter.
The research found that specialist goods, beverages and tobacco stores are forecast to achieve real sales growth of 1.3% during 2024, compared to a 2.2% decline last year, as they capture about R521m in additional sales over Easter.
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