Wayde van Niekerk will complete one of the finest comebacks in sport history should he win 400m gold at the 2024 Paris Olympics.
Even a silver or a bronze would be a huge achievement.
Van Niekerk has shown glimpses over the past two years, but this weekend at the SA championships in Potchefstroom he displayed the type of form to suggest he’s not just going to be a medal contender at the world championships in Budapest in August or at the Games next year — he’s going for glory.
A gold in Paris would be eight years since he ran his 43.03 world record to win the 400m at the Rio Games in 2016, and seven years since he injured his right knee playing an ill-advised game of tag rugby.
It took Muhammad Ali seven years to reclaim his world heavyweight crown. He was stripped of the crown for refusing to serve in the US military as a conscientious objector soon after his ninth defence, a stoppage win over Zora Folley in March 1967.
Seven years and seven months later he defeated George Foreman in the Rumble in the Jungle, but he didn’t get there without setbacks.
Ali had returned to the ring in 1970, beating Jerry Quarry in his first bout back after three years. Early in the following year he challenged Joe Frazier for the world title in what was dubbed the Fight of the Century, featuring two unbeaten heavyweights. Ali lost narrowly on points.
In early 1973 Ali suffered a broken jaw during a points loss to Ken Norton. He needed to beat Norton and Frazier in rematches to secure the crack at Foreman.
For Van Niekerk the comeback has been as psychologically demanding as it’s been physical. A few times he withdrew from competitions because he didn’t feel right. He didn’t want to risk injury.
He showed this past weekend that he can carry three rounds in his legs and still be strong over the final 200m. He’ll surely get even faster as the season wears on.
He made it to the Tokyo Games, but fell out in the semifinals lacking the race fitness to get through rounds.
At the world championships last year Van Niekerk reached the final, finishing fifth, but he lacked the late burst we’re used to seeing from him. That too was about a lack of race fitness.
But he showed this past weekend that he can carry three rounds in his legs and still be strong over the final 200m. He’ll surely get even faster as the season wears on.
People were doubting whether Van Niekerk’s knee would stand up to top-end racing. Sure, he’s still got to take his reconstructed knee to a sub-44, but it’s difficult to argue that he won’t get there.
Maybe he won’t improve his 43.03 world record, but that’s secondary to victory at this stage.
Athletics and golf are different sports when looking at longevity, but I would suggest that Van Niekerk, if successful, would be in the same league as Tiger Woods’s 11 years between his last two Major titles.
Woods’s comeback is another of sport’s most memorable returns, though in my book I think Niki Lauda is the top of the list.
The courage he showed to get back behind the wheel soon after his fiery crash at Nurburgring in 1976 and then claimed the championship the following season.
But don’t discount the bravery Van Niekerk has shown, overcoming the doubts about his knee and whether it would survive hard racing.
He pulled out of the 2019 and 2022 SA championships over injury fears, but he gritted it out at major meets in Tokyo in 2021 and again in Eugene, Oregon, last year.
Van Niekerk went from winning everything — from 2015 to 2017 he claimed two world championships and one Olympic crown — to tasting defeat and swallowing it.
All he needs now is another winner’s medal.
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