After spending at least $837bn (R12.52-trillion), the US military is leaving an Afghanistan that “remains poor, aid-dependent, and conflict-affected, with any potential economic growth in the short term, further limited by the lingering effects of the Covid-19 pandemic”, according to the latest report by Congress’s independent watchdog.
The grim accounting was offered on Thursday by the special inspector-general for Afghanistan Reconstruction, the office that has documented billions in waste and corruption since lawmakers created it in fiscal 2008. The report was published just weeks before American forces are expected to complete their withdrawal after nearly 20 years.
“The news coming out of Afghanistan this quarter has been bleak,” John Sopko, the inspector-general, wrote in his report covering the quarter ending on June 30, with some updates for more recent events. “The Taliban offensive that began early in the quarter accelerated in June and July.”
The $837bn spent on “US warfighting and reconstruction” over more than two decades doesn’t include billions more for classified intelligence operations, veterans’ medical and disability benefits and international financial aid.
US leaders from President Joe Biden to General Mark Milley, chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, say the outcome of the contest between the Afghan government and Taliban insurgents is far from settled, though Milley has acknowledged the Taliban has “strategic momentum”.
With nearly all US forces leaving, the Afghan government and the roughly 303,000 members of its military and national police face about 75,000 Taliban militants.
The overall trend is clearly unfavourable to the Afghan government, which could face an existential crisis if it isn’t addressed and reversed.
— Inspector-general, John Sopko
National security forces have retaken some contested districts and the Afghan government still controls all 34 provincial capitals, including Kabul, Sopko wrote. Yet the nation’s military “appeared surprised and unready, and is now on its back foot”, even after the US spent at least $83bn (R1.2-trillion) to train, equip, operate and sustain it.
In addition, “civilian casualties hit a record high in May and June, according to the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan”, Sopko wrote. US military officials reported 2,035 civilian casualties in April and May, which included 705 deaths and 1,330 injuries.
“The overall trend is clearly unfavourable to the Afghan government, which could face an existential crisis if it isn’t addressed and reversed,” Sopko wrote.
The US withdrawal, which is to be completed in August, will greatly complicate further assessments of where and how much control the Taliban is gaining in districts, according to Sopko.
One of the bright spots for the Afghan military has been its air force, a blend of seven types of aircraft including A-29 Super Tucano propeller planes performing close-air support with precision guided munitions and US and Russian-made transport helicopters. The US has spent about $2bn (R29bn) on the air force.
But there’s been a rapid deterioration. Up to June 30, only 167 of 211 aircraft were operational, and the force lacks qualified aircrews. Five of the seven airframes had decreases in readiness in June and this “coincided with the Taliban offensive and the withdrawal of US and coalition forces, including aircraft-maintenance contractors”, Sopko wrote.
Even as the US military pulls out, leaving several hundred troops to guard the American embassy in Kabul, the watchdog work of Sopko’s agency continues, but in more dangerous and limited circumstances. About $6.7bn (R98bn) is currently appropriated and awaiting to be disbursed in Afghanistan, with additional billions expected to follow.
Conducting oversight of those funds “will be much more difficult”, Sopko wrote, but it “can be done”.
Investigators “will expand their work with US-based Afghans and international law-enforcement officials to fight activities like corruption, narcotics production and trafficking, and money laundering”, he said.
— Bloomberg News. More stories like this are available on bloomberg.com
Would you like to comment on this article?
Sign up (it's quick and free) or sign in now.
Please read our Comment Policy before commenting.