How much load-shedding has SA had this year? 74 days and counting

Eskom has implemented 74 days of load-shedding this year, as of Tuesday. This figure refers to any day on which any load-shedding was in effect.

Speaking on the 73rd day of load-shedding this year, Eskom's COO Jan Oberholzer warned that more was to come and estimated that it would be lifted in about 10 days.

“As soon as the situation allows, we will most definitely ensure that the load-shedding stages or stage are reduced, and the intention is [to do it] in about 10 days or so. We trust by then that we will be in a position to lift load-shedding. However, the risk remains because of the unpredictability and unreliability of the system,” said Oberholzer. 

By May 10, Eskom had implemented 32 days of load-shedding compared with 26 days in the same period last year.

104 days of load-shedding in winter

Previously, Eskom’s head of transmission Segomoco Scheppers said the country could have up to 104 days of power cuts, with Stage 3 being the highest implemented.

Scheppers said the worst-case scenario estimate indicates that SA will be in the dark for more days than initially expected. Initially, the power utility expected between 37 and 101 days of load-shedding during winter.

191 days of load-shedding in summer on the cards

According to public enterprises minster Pravin Gordhan, Eskom could implement 191 days of load-shedding during summer, which runs from December 2022 to March 2023. 

“Eskom’s worst-case scenario is an assumption of unplanned unavailability between 13,500MW and 15,000MW for winter and between 14,500MW and 16,000MW in summer. 

“This shows that 104 days of load-shedding could be expected in winter and 191 days in the 2022/23 summer for a total of the 295 days,” said Gordhan in a written parliamentary Q&A. 

What is the most intensive load-shedding year to date?

According to the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) annual stats, 2021 surpassed 2020 as the country's most intensive load-shedding year to date.

Popular load-shedding app EskomSePush calculates that we have had 1,128 days of load-shedding so far this year, with this year looking likely to surpass last as the worst for load-shedding on record.

Load-shedding occurred for 1,169 hours in 2021, with an upper limit of 2,521GWh. In 2020, load-shedding occurred for 859 hours, 530 hours in 2019 and 127 hours the year before that.  

The CSIR said the intensification of load-shedding in 2021 could be attributed largely to the increase of unplanned outages across Eskom’s coal fleet. 

“Load-shedding in 2021 overtook 2020 as the most intensive year of load-shedding to date, with load-shedding concentrated in October and November and dominated by Stage 2 load-shedding overall,” it said. 

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