Brace yourself for load-shedding 'worst case scenario' during winter, warns electricity minister

Electricity minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa has warned of a dark and cold winter if Eskom's grid remains constrained.

According to the minister, Eskom needs about 6,000MW to bridge the gap between demand and supply.

Briefing the media at the Union Buildings recently, Ramokgopa said with the energy demand expected to grow in winter, the gap could increase to 10,000MW, which may result in higher stages of load-shedding.

He said Eskom’s energy availability factor averages 53%.

“Our initial computations suggest we need something in the order of about 6,000MW for us to close this gap,” said the minister.

“This is a determination made on summer conditions. On average, Eskom can guarantee us about 27,000MW, and we know that peak demand in summer is about 32,000MW.”

“Now we are entering winter, which is going to be a very difficult period. The numbers suggest that historically the average [demand] is about 35,000MW, but it can go up to 37,000MW.”

Ramokgopa said the worst-case scenario would be if winter peak demand reaches 37,000MW.

“If this demand is going to go up to about 37,000MW, the worst case scenario, and we are not able to improve on this 27,000MW, you can see the gap grows from 5,000MW to 10,000MW.”

Ramokgopa said there are three ways to address the situation, the first being Eskom ramping up its generation capacity.

“The second option is to bring down demand. The third option, our preferred option, is that you do both. You ramp up generation and reduce demand, but as you reduce demand, you don’t undermine the ability of households to meet their daily needs and you don’t undermine the ability of commerce and business to operate and meet the commercial demands.”

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