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LIAM DEL CARME | Planning too far ahead can create its own pitfalls

Lopsided World Cup draw suits Wales, England, Australia and Argentina

Kurt-Lee Arendse scores for the Springboks during the 26-30 loss to France at the Velodrome in Marseille.
Kurt-Lee Arendse scores for the Springboks during the 26-30 loss to France at the Velodrome in Marseille. (Clement Mahoudeau/Gallo Images)

The game’s custodians' need to kneel at the altar of rabid commercialism is no better illustrated than the way in which teams have been drawn for battle at this year’s Rugby World Cup (RWC).

The tournament that kicks off in Paris on September 8, when the hosts come to grips with the All Blacks, should already provide a glimpse into how the game’s power brokers have botched the tournament playing schedule. World Rugby you see, mesmerised by commercial lure, do the draw to their apex tournament three years in advance. They do so to set in place mechanisms that will ensure they rake in as much commercial value as they possibly can from a cash cow, which to be fair, just keeps on giving.

Ticketing, they argue, has to be done well in advance, while it is best to avoid the late stampede for flights and hotel beds at eye-watering prices from approved tour operators.

World Rugby will also argue it gives teams ample opportunity to set their plans in the years leading up to the tournament. It of course leaves coaches with so much time in advance they can entertain in no particular order, the unlikely, far-fetched or improbable.

Erstwhile Springbok coach Heyneke Meyer spent time considering alternative routes for the team bus in the event of a traffic jam before pool matches to the 2015 RWC in England. Japan, as you may recall, introduced his team to a crater-like pothole.  

The folly of World Rugby’s ways came into even sharper focus last week when Scotland defeated England for the third time in a row when they downed the 2019 RWC finalists 29-23. It meant Scotland jumped to fifth place in the world rankings, which in itself doesn’t spike on the Richter Scale, until you consider that the game's top five ranked teams are all grouped in one half of the draw in Pools A and B. Only two of Ireland, France, New Zealand, SA and Scotland can potentially reach the semifinals.

England, Australia, Argentina, Wales and Japan, who are ranked fifth to 10th, all have a decent shot at reaching the semifinals. It is a draw that is very kind to them.

England, Australia, Argentina, Wales and Japan, who are ranked fifth to 10th, all have a decent shot at reaching the semifinals. It is a draw that is very kind to them. England, Australia and Wales all opted to change head coach inside the year in which the RWC takes place. Steve Borthwick, Eddie Jones and Warren Gatland could not have asked for a softer draw.

England and Wales made it to the semifinals of the last RWC and they may well breeze their way to that phase of the competition again.

Jones must be laughing. Back in December 2020 when the draw was made it was hailed as a “dream” for the Wallabies. “Almost the best case scenario” the Sydney Morning Herald crowed after the draw.

Pool B, which contains SA, Ireland, Scotland, Romania and Tonga was quickly dubbed “Pool of Death”. The bloodbath, however, won’t end there as New Zealand and France, who are in the same pool, will also likely face redoubtable Pool B opponents in the quarterfinals.

Since the draw was made, the Boks have had limited exposure to their Pool B opponents. They’ve played Ireland once and lost, they played Scotland once and won. The last time they played Tonga was at the 2007 RWC in France, while their last clash against Romania was at the 1995 RWC. On both those occasions they went on to win the RWC.

Come September, however, the order in which teams do combat will be no reflection of where power resides. Instead, battle lines have been drawn by men in suits with dollar signs in their immediate and peripheral view.

Twelve of the 20 teams qualified automatically for the RWC by finishing in the top three places of their Rugby World Cup 2019 pool. SA, New Zealand, England, Wales, Ireland, France, Australia, Japan, Scotland, Argentina, Fiji and Italy all qualified via that route. Acknowledging the global Covid-19 impact on international rugby in 2020, these teams were seeded based on the World Rugby men's rankings as of January 1, 2020 and placed into the first three bands of four teams.

The system World Rugby devised is not so much flawed by design, as it is by implementation. They have found a way of compromising their blue riband event. Despite the obstacles, it may yet be an event again tinged with green and gold. 

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