The predicted rain in Paris on Saturday night will favour the Springboks in their Rugby World Cup final showdown with the All Blacks. Their power pack and selection of seven forwards among the eight substitutes also gives them the edge in what will be a titanic battle.
Whichever team wins will create World Cup history.
The Springboks and All Blacks are joint record holders of the most World Cup titles, with three each. The Springboks, though, have never lost a final and the All Blacks' only defeat in a final came 28 years ago against the Boks in Johannesburg.
The Bok versus All Blacks rivalry is the grandest and greatest in world rugby and when it comes to World Cups it has gone full cycle.
The two teams met at the first possible attempt in 1995, and appropriately it was in a final. They continued the rivalry in 1999, in a third and fourth play-off, in a match that ended with a 22-18 Boks win.
In 2003, they played out a one-sided 29-9 New Zealand quarterfinal win in Melbourne, Australia, but had to wait until 2015 to play again in what was the most thrilling of semifinals that New Zealand won 20-18 at Twickenham.
There would be one more match-up at the 2019 World Cup, which was the tournament opener for the two teams. The All Blacks won 23-13 in the only time the two have played a World Cup pool match against each other.
The Boks, despite their first-up defeat, became the first team to lose a pool match and win the World Cup.
Recent history of matches between these two teams suggests that trying to call this final comes down to an emotional bias and subjectivity, depending on whether you are South African or a Kiwi.
The All Blacks are now chasing a similar kind of history, having lost their 2023 World Cup opener to hosts France.
The World Cup history, five clashes between the two giants in every possible guise, now starts again with a final. Never has a World Cup showdown been as eagerly anticipated.
Who wins on Saturday night? Ask any South African and they will say the Boks. Ask any New Zealander and they will say the All Blacks.
Recent history of matches between these two teams suggests that trying to call this final comes down to an emotional bias and subjectivity, depending on whether you are South African or a Kiwi.
All Blacks coach Ian Foster has been involved with the All Blacks as head coach and assistant since Rassie Erasmus/Jacques Nienaber left Munster to lead the Boks in 2018. In that time the two teams have met 10 times and the Boks have won four, drawn one and the All Blacks have won five. Both teams have scored 30-plus points on four occasions and both teams have beaten the other away from home and on neutral territory. The All Blacks have scored 27 tries to the Springboks' 24 tries in these 10 Tests and the Boks, with 247 points to the All Blacks' 240 points, on average get the win by less than a point: 24.7 plays 24.
That is how close it is — and has been — with this group of Bok and All Blacks players.
There was the pre-World Cup smackdown for the All Blacks at Twickenham. The Boks won 35-7 to inflict the biggest defeat in All Blacks history. It was an aberration, in terms of result, though the Boks, in using seven forwards and one back split at Twickenham, finally believe they have the formula to suffocate the All Blacks' all-out attack.
There is acknowledgment of the All Blacks' improvement as a forward unit since Jason Ryan joined from the Crusaders. There is respect for the collective strength of their starting pack, but there is a belief that South Africa’s firepower, to be introduced in the second half, is unmatched, and that this, combined with the goal-kicking of Bok flyhalf Handré Pollard, will be South Africa’s golden World Cup title ticket.
There will always be ifs and buts. There will always be questions about the match officiating and referee interpretation and opinion will always be divided about who will win.
If you want anything that resembles unanimous agreement, don’t ask a question but simply make the statement that it does not get bigger than the Springboks versus the All Blacks in a World Cup final.
And given the love for rugby in both countries, how appropriate that they get to decide the title in the City of Love.
Boks by one, says the South African in me.
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