Zimbabwe pre-election survey puts Chamisa way ahead of Zanu-PF

As Zimbabwe gears up for the 2023 election, a survey has found that Citizens Coalition For Change (CCC) can topple long-governing Zanu-PF and emerge with a majority.

Results of an independent survey conducted by the Brenthurst Foundation revealed that:

If an election were to be held tomorrow, the CCC, led by Nelson Chamisa, would secure a decisive victory of “53% of the vote and 52% of the parliamentary vote”.

However, according to the survey, many also expressed concern about whether the election would be free and fair. The survey was conducted for the Brenthurst Foundation by independent London-based research group SABI Strategy in January “using an in-depth, 15-minute questionnaire”.

It shows Chamisa would win 53% of the vote to Mnangagwa’s 40% among those who say they will definitely vote.

Zanu-PF has been in power since Zimbabwe gained independence in 1980 and  is led by incumbent President Emmerson Mnangagwa. In the 2018 presidential election, Mnangagwa won 50.8% of the votes.

Chamisa, who was running on the ticket of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) alliance, won 44.3%.

Responding to the question “Thinking ahead to the next general election, which party will you cast your vote for?” 52% said they would vote for the CCC while only 40% said Zanu-PF.

Announcing the findings on Tuesday, the foundation said 42% of survey respondents said they had voted for Zanu-PF in 2018, with 40% saying they had voted for the CCC’s predecessor MDC Alliance.

In a statement, the foundation said this shift suggested a sea change in voter sentiment as Zimbabwe’s economic collapse accelerates under Mnangagwa.

“But 47% of voters believe the 2023 election will not be free and fair compared to just 38% who say it will be free and fair.

“Cheating in the counting process was cited as the biggest threat to a free and fair election (41%) with ‘the government abusing its power’ cited by 29% and ‘security force violence’ cited by 21%,” the survey found.

Voters cited weak leadership, corruption, bad policies and future prospects as the main reasons.

Chamisa also emerged as the leader with the highest favourability score, scoring 59% to Mnangagwa who trailed with 43%, narrowly ahead of CCC MP and former MDC finance minister Tendai Biti.

“When it came to political parties, the CCC enjoyed a net-favourability (subtracting negative ratings from positive ratings) of 31%, way ahead of Zanu-PF’s -4%.

“More voters believed the CCC would govern more effectively with 47% favouring the opposition party compared to 33% favouring Zanu-PF,” the findings revealed.

The Brenthurst Foundation describes itself as a “frontier of new ideas and innovative actions for strengthening Africa's economic performance.”

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