Despite El Niño, lots of rain predicted for northeastern SA at end of year

Despite El Niño, the seasonal forecast predicts lots of rain for the northeast of the country at year end.

Below-normal rainfall is expected from November to February over the western and central parts of the country, with the highest probabilities of below-normal rainfall over the far-western parts of the country.

According to the SA Weather Service (Saws), the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (Enso) is now in an El Niño state and, according to the latest predictions, is expected to persist through most of the summer months. 

The weather service's multi-model rainfall forecast indicates above-normal rainfall for large parts of the country from October to December.

“Enso’s typical affect on Southern Africa is in favour for generally drier and warmer conditions during the summer seasons from October to March. However, current global forecasts indicate a great deal of uncertainty for the typical drier conditions that South Africa experiences during typical El Niño seasons,” said Saws.

Saws said predictions still favour above-normal rainfall over the northeastern parts of the country, even with El Niño in place.

“Caution is advised as the El Niño effect might still manifest in the next few months and change the outlook of the rainfall forecast for mid and late summer. Minimum and maximum temperatures are expected to be mostly above normal, countrywide, for the forecast period,” it said.

Gauteng falls into the “wetter than normal” category.

According to Saws, Enso’s typical influence is on the summer rainfall areas of SA over the northeastern half of the country, including Gauteng. 

“When there is an El Nino state in effect, such as the current state, the typical influence is a drier and warmer summer. Current long-term seasonal predictions, however, are uncertain, with numerous global models unsure on the direction that the summer season will go.”

Though Saws' multi-model forecast indicates above-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures over the summer rainfall areas, it says there is a high risk that these forecasts may change in the coming months.

The weather service said it will continue to monitor the weather and provide updates on any future assessments that may provide more clarity .

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