This week three years ago, late Zimbabwean president Robert Mugabe’s reign was on its last legs. He was cornered and outnumbered as his allies skipped the country.
War veteran Christopher Mutsvangwa declared “the army must finish with him today”, Zanu-PF’s youth league called for Mugabe’s impeachment and the opposition bought into that.
The most important piece of that puzzle fell into place on November 18, when, for the first time in the country’s history, people were allowed to take to the streets en masse to call for Mugabe’s departure.
That was the crescendo of civilian-military relations. Soldiers, armed to the teeth, allowed civilians to take pictures with them admiring their iconic AK-47 assault rifles.
But three years on people are singing from a different hymn book.
“November symbolises that day we sold the freezer to buy a cooler box,” chuckles Mbonisi Tshabangu, a university graduate in between piece jobs.
“When we see military interventions in other parts of Africa we joke on social media: ‘Should we tell them?’ This is because, from first-hand experience, we know that once the military leaves the barracks and moves into civilian systems it’s the end of normalcy.”
When we see military interventions in other parts of Africa we joke on social media: ‘Should we tell them?’
— Mbonisi Tshabangu
Tshabangu’s cynicism is based on a chain of events over the past three years. It started with judge president George Chiweshe, a retired brigadier general, who ruled that the military’s actions did not result in a coup.
President Emmerson Mnangagwa would then occasionally use the military to stifle any form of resistance from civilians. Thousands have been injured and close to 50 people have died as a result of the military in the past three years. The majority are MDC Alliance activists who dispute Mnangagwa’s legitimacy after a controversial general election victory on July 31 2018.
History will judge many for supporting the coup because for them it was all about Mugabe stepping down. However, to Dr Alex Magaisa, a former chief of staff in late prime minister Morgan Tsvangirai’s office, it was an internal Zanu-PF fight which the opposition and progressive Zimbabweans should not have embraced.
“I would urge Zimbabweans to take a sober approach to politics and avoid naiveté ... My views were unpopular at the time of the coup, but many people soon woke to the reality of authoritarianism that they had cheered on in November 2017,” he told Sunday Times Daily.
“We are in a big hole and while we must learn from it. The most urgent challenge right now is how to get out of this hole. I would prefer us to be discussing these strategies than beating the dead horse that is the coup.”
We are in a big hole and while we must learn from it. The most urgent challenge right now is how to get out of this hole. I would prefer us to be discussing these strategies than beating the dead horse that is the coup.
— Former chief of staff Dr Alex Magaisa
Mnangagwa’s government has struggled to fight corruption and failed to steer the economy on a positive trajectory and uphold the rule of law.
This week the president launched the National Development Strategy (NDS) that outlines policies, institutional reforms and national priorities needed from 2021 to 2025 to achieve an upper-middle-income economy under Vision 2030.
It replaces the Transitional Stabilisation Programme (TSP), which couldn’t stimulate growth as intended.
According to the new economic recovery plan, Zimbabwe is targeting annual average economic growth of 5% for the next five years, and aims to bring down inflation to single digits and to create 760,000 formal jobs.
The worst economic crisis in more than a decade saw inflation reach 471.25% and the Zimbabwe dollar currency collapse, with a shortage of foreign exchange.
The recovery will be driven by investment in mining, boosting agriculture production to ensure food security and maintaining the budget deficit below 3% of GDP.
The annual inflation rate is expected to ease to to 134.8% next year, falling further to 10.5% by 2023, then into single-digit territory thereafter, according to the NDS.
Zimbabwe has, in the past three decades, launched several economic recovery plans, many of which have missed their targets due to failure by authorities to follow through on reforms and keep expenditure within budget.
Under the new plan, the country will also seek to develop an economic reform programme with the International Monetary Fund and accelerate the raising of funding to pay $3bn (about R46,2bn) to white farmers whose land was confiscated.
Zimbabwe owes international creditors more than $8bn (about R123,2bn), most of it arrears, which prevents it accessing new funding.
— Additional reporting by Reuters
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