The ANC’s sixth national policy conference this weekend takes place in the context of soaring prices, rising interest rates, stubbornly high unemployment and a widespread dissatisfaction with the administration of President Cyril Ramaphosa.
The runaway cost of living and a severe bout of load-shedding, on the first anniversary of the riots that shook KwaZulu-Natal and parts of Gauteng, have combined to sour the national mood.
The question is, will delegates to the policy conference correctly read the mood and apply their minds to sensible and workable policies based on justice and equity, or will they take the easy route in throwing taxpayer-funded “solutions’’ to problems? In any event, there is little stomach for cheap antics, and the country looks to the ANC to fulfil its obligations in terms of governance and furthering the broader aims of the constitution.
The policy conference is the first plenum gathering since the party’s delegates elected Ramaphosa at the same venue Nasrec in 2017. Then, as has been the case for the past three policy conferences at least, so-called policy positions became the basis for proxy wars between candidates for the party’s top job. In 2017 the conference was dominated by the debate over “white monopoly capital’’, which was the claim used by supporters of Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma to have her preferred over the “anti state capture’’ Ramaphosa.
This time around, Ramaphosa comes to the policy conference with the words of former president Thabo Mbeki, to the effect that he doesn’t have a plan, ringing in his ears. Also, he’s just been booed by delegates at the ANC’s KwaZulu-Natal conference last weekend. Yet even as delegates sang in favour of former president Jacob Zuma, Ramaphosa sat looking quite composed, unruffled even. And his electricity address this week left little doubt on which side of the policy fence he is.
Yet there may be those at the conference who perceive that this is the moment to move on Ramaphosa and develop a parallel slate of policies for a candidate it will embrace in preparation for the party’s all-important elective conference later this year. The declared intention to take on the “step-aside’’ rule that has become a hallmark of Ramaphosa’s ANC presidency, is likely to be seen as attempt to tackle Ramaphosa where he is most vulnerable. The Zuma-inclined ANC leadership wants it scrapped, and its support for Ramaphosa may become more conditional than he would be comfortable with. Even Limpopo wants “step-aside” to be reconsidered, and that province is largely Ramaphosa supporting.
This time around, Ramaphosa comes to the policy conference with the words of former president Thabo Mbeki, to the effect that he doesn’t have a plan, ringing in his ears.
Whether a compromise on step-aside is possible, will depend on the mood of the antagonists and their perception of their support. Possibly, the stepping-aside period itself will be limited, but the retention of the essence of the rule will signal Ramaphosa is in the ascendancy.
The big danger for SA, beyond the immediate power interests of competing ANC factions, is that delegates’ support will come implicitly with an unspoken promise to look the other way when fanciful and expensive programmes are mooted as policy. To the delegates, the temptation to shore up the ANC’s support in light of confident predictions that the ANC will not get a majority in the 2024 elections, will be hard to avoid.
The result could be a slew of populist policies that experts have warned could impoverish middle class households, without any corresponding benefit to broader society. The temptation to offer a basic income grant as part of ANC policy, even though all indications are that it is unaffordable, would become an opposition whip on the government’s back as the reality of unaffordability dawns. Similarly, with NHI, state hospitals are decrepit, and in the most recent outrage, at Thembisa Hospital, an ANC office bearer has been identified as a major beneficiary of dodgy hospital supply contracts.
Instead of trying to play Father Christmas, the ANC delegates should ask themselves how the policies they adopt are going to contribute towards bringing solutions to pressing problems, such the alienation and despair of our youth, immigration and xenophobia, crime and a decline in morality and rise in lawlessness, the economic crisis and last but not least the credibility crisis affecting the ANC itself.
SA deserves more than a scramble for leadership dressed up as a policy debate. And we need to know how these policies are going to be implemented. And what they will cost.
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