ANALYSIS | Kingmakers and crucial cogs: coalitions beckon for most SA metros

Coalitions, coalitions everywhere.

This is the situation emerging in SA’s metropolitan municipalities, particularly in Gauteng, where it is increasingly likely that residents will be governed by parties that have, leading up to Monday’s election and beyond, been at each other’s throats.

But now, as the dust settles on a vote with an apparent historic low turnout, they will have to find a way to work with each other.

Results published on the IEC’s website at 7pm on Tuesday painted a picture of reduced majorities in all of Gauteng’s metros, as well as in metros across SA. While it is still early and votes will continue to come in, meaning the situation could well change, patterns are starting to emerge.

If the status quo remains, coalitions will be needed in six of SA’s eight metros. Brace yourselves, SA, the next few days are going to be interesting.

Gauteng

In Johannesburg, where the ANC won 44.5% of the vote in the 2016 local government election, the ruling party was in the lead, but was a full seven percentage points down, with 37.36% of the vote. This translated to 127,217 of the votes cast at the time of writing.

The DA also took a significant knock in the country’s economic hub, sitting at 21.56% on Tuesday evening (73,403 votes) — down from 38.41% in 2016.

While the EFF was up from five years ago (12.5% on Tuesday, compared to 11.09%), this wasn’t enough of a swing to explain the demise of the ANC and the DA. What does explain it, though, is the rise of newcomers ActionSA, with leader Herman Mashaba’s stint as mayor clearly giving him goodwill among voters.

ActionSA got off to a flying start on Tuesday, securing more than 19% of the vote by the time of counting at 8am and 2pm. While this had since dropped to 17.86% by 7pm, it was still a strong showing. Mashaba is going to be a crucial cog in coalitions across Gauteng as horse-trading begins.

A similar situation is playing out in neighbouring Tshwane, this time with the DA the leading party. The party was on 38.87% as of 7pm on Tuesday, down from the 43.15% it obtained in 2016. The ANC was the biggest loser in SA’s capital on Tuesday night, dropping from 41.25% five years ago to 29.07%, while the EFF was also down (9.31%, compared to 11.63% in 2016).

Mashaba’s ActionSA was a significant reason for the fall in these parties’ fortunes, securing 7.24% of the vote by 7pm on Tuesday. But it is the Freedom Front Plus that will be a big factor in the coalition talks, having shot up from 1.99% in 2016 to 9.15% as of 7pm on Tuesday. Where the party decides to go could be crucial.

It is also looking increasingly tight in the Ekurhuleni metro, where the ANC was fighting to regain its position as ruling party.

The ANC secured 48.64% of the vote in 2016, but was 12 percentage points down (36.85%) by Tuesday evening. The DA was also down (34.15% in 2016, to 30.8% on Tuesday), while the EFF was up from 11.23% five years ago, to 13.26%.

Again, votes for ActionSA and growth for the FF+ will be crucial as the ripples settle.

Cape Town

Moving to SA’s coastline, there is very little chance of a coalition being needed in the City of Cape Town metro, where the DA has a big margin — albeit down from five years ago (66% to 60.89% as at 7pm on Tuesday). The ANC is second, well behind on 14.75%, while the Cape Coloured Congress was polling at below 5% in third spot.

The DA has Cape Town wrapped up. It’s just by how much that remains to be seen.

Eastern Cape

In the Eastern Cape, the situation becomes a little murkier — at least in one of the metros.

As at 7pm on Tuesday, the ANC was in the lead in Nelson Mandela Bay, with 44.28% of the vote. The DA was next on 36.99% and the EFF on 7.3%.

The number of votes counted, though, means the situation could well change, but it is looking like another coalition will be needed to determine which party’s rep ends up wearing the mayoral chain.

In Buffalo City, meanwhile, it appears the ANC stronghold will continue to be exactly that. As of 7pm, the party had 69.37%, roughly in line with its 2016 performance. The EFF lagged well behind with 12.33% of the vote, and the DA further back on 11.4%.

Much like Cape Town, it seems that it’s just the margin that’s going to matter here, with the winner a dead cert.

eThekwini

Further up the coast, in KwaZulu-Natal, the ANC could be in for a battle in a council it has won pretty comfortably in elections past. Though it is still early — the eThekwini results often lag behind the other metros and, five years ago, it was the last metro to be completed — the ANC had dipped below the 50% mark.

As of 7pm, the ruling party had 48.31% of the vote, the DA 24.35% and the EFF 10.94%. This will be one to keep an eye on as more results start coming through.

Mangaung

Moving back inland, the ANC also appears to be involved in a close battle in Mangaung.

Much like eThekwini, the number of votes counted were low and the situation could change, but as of 7pm, the ANC had 44.9% of the vote (down from 56.52% in 2016), the DA was on 31.27% (25.96% in 2016) and the EFF on 9.37% (8.66% in 2016).

If the status quo remains, coalitions will be needed in six of SA’s eight metros. Brace yourselves, SA, the next few days are going to be interesting.