It won’t be feast nor will it be famine for SA’s teams when the final eight of the United Rugby Championship (URC) are determined over the next three rounds.
Last season the Stormers, Bulls and Sharks made it into the prestigious top eight, which also serves as qualification for the Champions Cup, and this season Lions again appear destined to miss out on a finish in the top half of the table.
They have had a mini-revival in recent weeks and still have a mathematical chance of sneaking in. As for the Bulls and the Sharks, who have lost ground inside the top eight in recent weeks, more slip ups need to be avoided.
The Stormers, who are second on 59 points from 15 games, are the only local franchise assured of their place in the knockout stages. They may not be able to catch log leaders Leinster, who are 12 points clear, but they’ll have to win at least two of their last three to hold on to second spot over Ulster, who are five points adrift.
The Bulls, who are sixth on 43 points, certainly have an interesting fixture list to conclude league proceedings. They travel to Makhazeni for a matchup with Ulster, before welcoming Zebre and Leinster to Loftus. Two wins out of the remaining three should get the job done but which Irish team will yield to their advance.
The 11th-placed Lions face long odds of getting into the knockouts. They are six points back from eighth placed Connacht.
Such is Leinster's position of comfort at the top of the log they are unlikely to dispatch their best 23 for duty in SA. URC quarterfinals and Champions Cup knockout commitments will be their priority. Desperate Bulls against a well-drilled Leinster should still make for a compelling matchup.
The Sharks, who have suffered successive defeats in the absence of their stars, are off to Llanelli to face the Scarlets, before home matches against Benetton and Munster. With their full arsenal you’d expect them to win at least two of those clashes and cement their place in the top eight. A win over the Scarlets will be accompanied by a huge sigh of relief. They will hope Benetton’s top eight aspirations are crushed by then, but in Munster they are likely to run into a team hellbent on getting into the top four, should that still be a possibility. If not, Munster too may send their second stringers on a South African assignment.
The 11th-placed Lions face long odds of getting into the knockouts. They are six points back from eighth-placed Connacht. The Lions are away to Benetton, which should the hosts win, will give them something to aim for in their second last game in Durban. The Lions will then welcome a likely weakened Leinster before hosting Zebre in their last league match. They could quite conceivably win their last three matches and still fall short. Results elsewhere will need to go their way for them to secure a top eight finish.
Cardiff, who are a point ahead of them, should pick up points against bottom-placed Zebre, but they are away to Connacht and the Ospreys in their last two matches. Whatever the result in the match at Connacht, it will hurt the Lions. Benetton, who are five points clear of the Lions, close their programme against three SA teams. The Lions can take points off them in the first before the men from Treviso travel to Durban and Cape Town. That makes them catchable.
Connacht, however, are in the pound seats to retain the final qualifying place. They may have a tricky away clash against Glasgow Warriors in their last game, but they may have sewn up a qualifying spot in their preceding matches at home against struggling Edinburgh and Cardiff. That may leave the Lions, even if they hold up their end of the bargain, agonisingly short.
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