The noise that surrounds our politics distracts us from the evolving story of the shift in the South African economy: a move away from large capital- and labour-intensive industries to a service-based economy in the mould of the UK or US. Retail, banking and other service industries are still in a high-growth phase, albeit slowing, while the country's industrial base is continuing its steady decline, which goes as far back as the mid-1980s. No level of rand weakness can stem this blood-letting.There is merit in saying that this is just the natural course of any modernising economy, a move away from the pick to the keyboard - a shift that has its casualties, as British coal miners in the Margaret Thatcher era could attest.story_article_left1The South African context is very different because of our history and the much-needed corrective surgery still required to mend the fences. It's a shift that requires rather careful management. If it is indeed an inevitable change, as I suspect it is, there's much care that the government, business and unions need to undertake.Employment across the country's mines has been falling quite dramatically since its peak in 1986, when more than 820000 people were directly employed by mining houses, according to the Chamber of Mines.Almost 30 years later, that figure stands at just over 495000 and keeps falling. Some 35000 jobs have been lost since the Marikana tragedy, plus Anglo American is now restructuring its portfolio and South Africa forms part of that process. Troubled platinum producer Lonmin is set to shed even more jobs.These are just the big guns in the commodities space. One wonders how deep winter's bite will be for the smaller operators with shallow pockets.It's not surprising that the National Union of Mineworkers is a shadow of its former self. And, although the Association of Mineworkers and Construction Union may gloat over its rival's demise, the truth is that both are scrapping over a shrinking prize.block_quotes_start But they simply won't absorb as many people as we need to, to avert an unemployment crisis block_quotes_endThe days of double-digit wage increases that unions could once almost guarantee for their members in the "super-commodity" cycle are long gone. The plunge in commodity prices, combined with the technological assault on labour, continues to eat into their membership numbers.On the steel front, if local demand doesn't come back on line and quickly, we face the real threat of an entire industry shutting down. Directly, we are talking of some 23000 jobs; if you consider the entire value chain, that's in the region of 190000 (see Page 5). A tariff to protect against cheap Chinese imports will be a nice intervention, but is no panacea.story_article_right2Irvin Jim, the National Union of Metalworkers general secretary, should be worried .Should the industry collapse, it would take about 10 years to re-establish. We can only imagine at what cost, especially with a nuclear build to fund.There is some good news in that the services sector is in a much better space. Retailers such as Mr Price still surprise on the upside, and there's a fair level of growth in floor space for many of them. Financial services firms are still reporting some healthy levels of growth.But they simply won't absorb as many people as we need to, to avert an unemployment crisis. Although earnings may be good, there's still a sharp focus on costs in the corporate sector. There's also a public sector freeze on new appointments, something that ratings agencies are keeping a very close eye on.Now tell me, what has your "local" politician said about this non-partisan crisis?derbyr@sundaytimes.co.za..