When SA's political conspiracies lose their own plot

What makes for a great conspiracy theory? Is it that, while there are strong suspicions of some covert plan being hatched by some influential grouping to meet whatever ends, there's very little evidence to support it? And if there is, anecdotal at best.

The alleged conspirators can brush off suspicions as a figment of the imagination of those who raise them.

If that's more or less the makings of a great conspiracy, then one could argue that the bid to capture Treasury is no longer one. The plot and its main actors have been clearly defined for more than a year.

It's a tale that has unfolded with every passing week. There's no conspiracy left: the plan has been exposed and we could just debate what the ends are. At its core, I'd argue, it's about loosening the fiscus - the state has been a tough taskmaster over the past five years or so.

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When there were mere rumours of a planned raid on the Treasury, which began before the ousting of Nhlanhla Nene as finance minister, there was very little evidence available to those talking of a conspiracy. But since December 2015 that evidence, such as the revelations by Deputy Finance Minister Mcebisi Jonas, has been mounting.

The decision of the country's leading banks to stop doing any business with the partners of the president's son served to further bring to light the battles that were until then confined to boardrooms in Johannesburg.

The decision by Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan to ask the courts whether he had any right to intervene on behalf of the Guptas in their dispute with the banks has proved to be illuminating as well.

The banks and the family have since had to air some dirty laundry, serving to further reveal the full story behind Nenegate.

All of this makes me wonder just why President Jacob Zuma would still want to undertake a cabinet reshuffle involving the removal of the finance minister. This is regardless of one's assessment of Pravin's virtues.

In a successful conspiracy, where we would remain in the dark about the real intentions, his ousting would have been the last act. Now that it's a rather naked conspiracy, we'd all assume the worst, that it's just the start of worse to come: that the forces close to the president, namely his family's most lucrative business partners, had won the day; that an unelected faction within the ruling party had taken over the sovereignty of the country.

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Scenarios were boosted by reports such as Bloomberg's this week that the Reserve Bank had rejected a bid from one of the Gupta associates to acquire a bank. If true, I have no doubt it would invite unprecedented pressure from the family and its partners on the central bank.

South Africa is blessed with a great many spin doctors, but I fear that not even the best of them would be able to change this narrative of capture.

In an investment world on high alert over any political risk, South Africa would be able to compete with Donald Trump's presidency for a short while only. But there'll be investors taking a long-term negative bet that will come home to bite.

Politically, a move on Gordhan would serve only to further isolate the president from both his cabinet and party. Of course, he can always count on the KwaZulu-Natal ANC Youth League for support.

As the president marks out his and his cabinet's focus for the year ahead at the state-of-the-nation address this week, the rumours are once again swirling that he'll finally make his move - one that's a bit like playing Russian roulette with one's future.

E-mail derbyr@sundaytimes.co.za or find him on Twitter @ronderby