Gold prices gain as dollar weakens; focus on US inflation data

Gold prices edged up on Tuesday as the dollar softened, while investors awaited a key US inflation report in a week filled with data releases and speeches from Federal Reserve officials for cues into the central bank's potential rate-cut timings.

Spot gold was up 0.1% at $2,033.34 (R39000) per ounce, as of 0620 GMT. US gold futures rose 0.2% to $2,043.00 (R39189) per ounce.

The dollar traded weaker, making greenback-priced bullion relatively less expensive for other currency holders.

"Ahead of inflation number we expect some kind of consolidation. We expect gold to trade in a very narrow range ... bias will be 'sell' on jump," said Ajay Kedia, director at Kedia Commodities in Mumbai.

The support for gold follows Japan and the UK entering into a technical recession, a trend reflected in the gold-silver ratio, which is currently at 90 , Kedia said. "But, there is no change in war premium, everything has been already priced in."

Recent remarks from Fed policymakers suggested that the U.S. central bank was in no hurry to cut interest rates, largely cementing bets against any rate cuts before June.

Markets are currently pricing in about 79 basis points of rate cuts for 2024, with a 61% chance of the first quarter-point cut occurring in June, according to LSEG's interest rate probability app, IRPR.

Lower interest rates boost the appeal of holding non-yielding bullion.

At least 10 Fed officials are due to speak this week, while investors are focussed on the core personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, due on Thursday.

Investors are also monitoring the risk of US government agency shutdowns if Congress fails to reach an agreement on a borrowing extension by Friday.

Spot platinum climbed 0.6% to $884.90 (R16,974.39) per ounce, palladium rose 0.3% to $951.63 (R18,254.21), and silver edged 0.1% higher to $22.57 (R432.94) per ounce.

Reuters