Mangaung paralyses what leaders we had

Intra-alliance jockeying for power has left South Africa dangerously adrift, writes S'thembiso Msomi

WHAT if Cosatu general secretary Zwelinzima Vavi - a hugely popular figure in working class communities - had visited Marikana before the illegal strike at the Lonmin mine exploded into a tragedy of epic proportions?

Could a public rebuke by Deputy President Kgalema Motlanthe, or any of the ANC leaders in whose names Julius Malema claims to be fighting, have persuaded the firebrand to abandon his anarchic "mining revolution" that is now threatening to bring the platinum industry to its knees?

On June 1 2008, following a wave of anti-African immigrant violence that claimed the lives of 62 people, the SA Communist Party warned of the instability caused by what it termed the "leadership vacuum" in South Africa at the time and argued that only the sacking of then president Thabo Mbeki would rescue the country.

"The events of the past weeks have also exposed the dangers of a leadership vacuum in our country. While there is not yet support from our allies in this regard, the SACP continues to believe that the president of the country should be recalled," the party's Central Committee said in a statement. "Our country and our region cannot afford to persist with the current blend of directionless absenteeism, and meddling factionalism and general irresoluteness. All of this has poisoned the security and intelligence forces of our country, the functioning of our public broadcaster, and much more."

Three months later, Mbeki was unceremoniously forced out of office.

It is highly unlikely that the SACP - or any other component of the ANC-led tripartite alliance - will be calling for a presidential recall any time soon, but independent minds would agree that South Africa's leadership is now in the same state of paralysis as in 2008. If not worse.

The extent of the leadership crisis goes far beyond President Jacob Zuma's legendary dithering approach to contentious issues.

If Mbeki's hands were tied during his final months at the Union Buildings because he had lost to Zuma at the 2007 Polokwane ANC conference, the entire current alliance and government leadership has been rendered impotent by the toxic atmosphere that has characterised the period leading up to the upcoming Mangaung conference.

Although the government this weekend finally announced drastic measures to put an end to labour unrest, the hesitancy with which most leaders have approached the crisis over the past six weeks has exposed the crippling effects of the battle for Mangaung on South Africa as a whole.

As wildcat strikes in the platinum and gold sectors raged on, South Africa's most recognisable and outspoken trade unionist - Vavi - became increasingly conspicuous by his absence from action.

Ordinarily, Vavi would not have been content with confining himself to issuing statements and addressing press conferences from the comfort of his air-conditioned offices in downtown Johannesburg while Marikana and the platinum belt burned.

A former mineworker himself, Vavi would not have hesitated to intervene once he realised that the National Union of Mineworkers - Cosatu's largest affiliate - was not able to convince strikers to stop the violence.

But the battle for Mangaung has complicated matters within the federation. Vavi - a vocal critic of corruption within Zuma's government - is currently at loggerheads with the NUM - a union actively campaigning for the president's second-term bid.

When Vavi intervened in an earlier wildcat strike by Impala Platinum mine workers who wanted nothing to do with the NUM, angry union leaders accused him of interference and of attempting to turn their members against them. Cosatu affiliates generally operate as independent organisations and the federation cannot intervene in any of the sectors without their blessing .

Vavi had to pull out of the Implats crisis even though his visit to the area had made it clear that the striking workers were willing to listen to him and not their union.

So when Marikana broke out and the striking workers demonstrated their hatred for the NUM by attempting to burn down its offices, and threatened the life of its president, Senzeni Zokwana, as he tried to address them at the now infamous koppie, Vavi could not have come to the rescue.

It is impossible to say whether the Cosatu leader's intervention could have led to a speedy resolution of the conflict and, therefore, the prevention of the August 16 tragedy that saw 34 strikers shot dead by police.

What is clear, though, is that Vavi's involvement would have made it difficult for Malema to exploit the crisis for his own political ends.

But Vavi and the NUM are not the only ones to blame for the leadership void that has led to Malema's political resurrection and the mining industry's near collapse.

Since its unbanning in 1990, one of the ruling party's important slogans has been: "The ANC leads, the ANC lives."

Over the past decade, hardly any protest of any significance would have taken place without a certain level of involvement by party members. This often made it easier for party leaders to help broker a deal.

But in Marikana, the ANC has been completely absent, with the North West party leadership - deeply divided over Mangaung - unable to agree on who should visit the affected communities.

Even premier Thandi Modise, a high-ranking ANC leader believed to be in the good books of Malema and others seeking Zuma's removal, has shown little appetite to take the lead.

The ANC's national executive committee, which is meeting in Irene outside Pretoria this weekend, is expected to come out strongly against Malema's call for a "mining revolution".

But the question is: why have so many of the party's leaders kept quiet for weeks even as it became clear that Malema's campaign was not only gaining support among poorly paid mineworkers, but was also threatening South Africa's economic stability?

There is no guarantee that a word from Motlanthe would have convinced Malema to stop his campaign - which moved into extremely dangerous territory when he tried to mobilise disgruntled soldiers - but it would have sent a clear message that the former ANC Youth League leader enjoys no support from any section of the ruling party for his "mining revolution".

With Mangaung around the corner, there has been a growing chorus of party bigwigs bemoaning the dearth of courageous and moral leadership in the ANC and the government under Zuma.

Yet as the mining crisis escalated, threatening thousands of jobs and the livelihoods of hundreds of thousands more, none of them has been able to fill the leadership vacuum.

Mindful of the fact that Mangaung is around the corner, and not wanting to irritate Malema's many sympathisers within the ANC, senior politicians have kept their heads buried in the sand during one of post-apartheid South Africa's greatest crises.

While this silence may guarantee some of them election to higher office at Mangaung, it provides little hope for the rest of us that the outcome of the conference will mean an end to the leadership paralysis we have become accustomed to over the past five years.