SA's demographics are set to cause an economic dilemma‚ Statistician General says

South Africa is facing an economic "dilemma" as two of its most dependent population groups - small children and the elderly - are growing‚ while the number of people making up the workforce‚ is declining.

Releasing the mid-year population estimates‚ statistician-general Pali Lehola said that South Africa's population now stands at an estimated 56.52 million‚ which is 902‚200 more people than in 2016.

Population rates for children aged 0-14 have steadily increased since 2002/3‚ largely due to the introduction of Prevention of Mother to Child Transmission (PMCT) and anti-retroviral treatment for HIV infected mothers and children.

Fertility rates have‚ however‚ declined‚ with the average number of children born to South African mothers now sitting at 2.4‚ compared to 2.7 ten years ago.

South Africans are also living longer‚ with the average life expectancy now reaching 64 years old - two years more than the 2012 estimates. Lehola said that at this rate‚ the country is likely to reach the 70 year old life expectancy target set out in the National Development Plan‚ by 2030.

Problematically however‚ the population in the age range of 15 to 34 has been steadily declining. This is supposed to be the most economically active age range‚ making up the bulk of the workforce.

Lehola said that this would impact South Africa's potential to reach the "demographic dividend" - a window period for economic growth created when a country's fertility rates decline and the working-age population grows.

"These two age groups (children and the elderly) are dependent populations and they depend largely on the 15-34 age group. But the growth rate of that group is declining‚ so the burden will fall on a declining population.

"Added to this‚ is that the 15-35 age group has the highest rate of unemployment so they're relying on nothing.

"In fact‚ that group is feeding off the social grants of the children and the elderly‚" he said.

"We're facing a serious problem‚" he said.

Lehola said the data from the survey was crucial for government planning purposes.

These figures will impact allocations for social grants such as the child support grant and pensions.

Lehola said the increased life expectancy also raised questions about whether old aged pensions will sustain people for the longer time period‚ especially given that many South Africans might have been unemployed for long periods during their workforce years.

- Parliamentary Bureau