Suspended ANC secretary general Ace Magashule may have lost the battle with Cyril Ramaphosa over control of the party’s national executive committee and parliamentary caucus, but he appears to be digging himself in for a long war of attrition, in which trying to win the hearts of the party membership, branches and provinces appears to be a key strategy.
Magashule is likely to fight a scorched-earth Stalingrad-like way, in the same way that Jacob Zuma did when, as deputy president of both the ANC and SA, he had a grinding leadership battle with former president Thabo Mbeki. Zuma ultimately triumphed at the 2007 ANC Polokwane conference, after he had looked defeated when he was suspended as deputy president following corruption and rape allegations.
Stalingrad tactics refer to the military strategy the former Soviet Union used to defend the city of Stalingrad from German invasion in World War 2. It slowed the Nazis’ progress with diversions and scorched-earth strategies, including destroying its own institutions. No doubt Magashule has taken copious notes from Zuma’s Stalingrad political war manual.
Magashule’s “suspension” of Ramaphosa was a clear Stalingrad tactic to cause diversion from his own suspension, stall action against him and slow Ramaphosa’s anti-corruption reforms.
Some of us here hate each other more than they hate the enemy or even the opposition.
— ANC Limpopo chairman Stan Mathabatha
Magashule is a veteran of long battles of attrition with ANC presidents. He has often bounced back from what appeared to be the political graveyard. This is something which Ramaphosa will have to factor in if he is to triumph over Magashule, whose Houdini-like ability to escape difficult situations is rivalled only by Zuma, in his spectacular comeback from being fired because of allegations of corruption and fraud in 2005.
Both Nelson Mandela and Mbeki tried to dislodge Magashule from his decades-long stronghold in the Free State — but both ultimately failed. Judging by the leaks from the ANC’s NEC meeting from which Magashule was barred because of a conflict of interest — as he was under discussion for his letter “suspending” Ramaphosa as ANC president – it is clear that although Ramaphosa now has majority support in the NEC, Magashule still has significant backing.
The NEC’s call on Magashule to apologise for “suspending” Ramaphosa reaffirmed the president’s party leadership and showed he has a majority in the NEC, even if it is slim. The NEC statement after the meeting attempted to show some sense of unity at the top leadership level, some semblance of the NEC still being in charge of the party and giving direction.
The truth is that the party and its leadership, including the NEC, are deeply divided between the now irreconcilable supporters of centrist Ramaphosa and those of Magashule and Zuma. The two groups cannot coexist in the ANC any more — one group has to go, or the other submit.
ANC Limpopo chair Stan Mathabatha, in his leaked NEC statement, captured the extent of the divisions when he said that “some of us here hate each other more than they hate the enemy or even the opposition”.
In personality terms, either Ramaphosa or Magashule has to go, or both have to go. Magashule’s strategy of writing the letter suspending Ramaphosa was to cause confusion, to have the NEC meeting and ANC members and supporters equate Ramaphosa’s alleged “wrongdoing” — accepting outside financial contributions to his CR17 party presidential campaign fund — as equal to Magashule’s alleged corruption in the flawed R255m Free State asbestos tender fraud case.
Magashule was trying to make Ramaphosa’s CR17 presidential campaign part of the past weekend’s NEC’s anti-corruption discussion agenda. Though excluded from the meeting, Magashule held media interviews, press conferences and private briefings to get his message across to party members, supporters and ANC branches, above the discussions happening in the meeting.
This message is to allege that Ramaphosa is using state resources to persecute his opponents for corruption while giving his allies a free pass even though they too may be corrupt. Furthermore, Magashule has throughout alleged that “white business” or “white monopoly capital” has “captured” ANC policies, the state and democratic institutions. The irony is that the Magashule/Zuma faction has in the past captured the state, democratic institutions and policies.
Magashule and his group are likely to call for a special ANC national conference or to bring the conference scheduled for next year forward to this year. Magashule appears to be prioritising the securing of a majority of ANC branches and provinces to support him. The NEC could call for a special ANC national conference or bring forward next year’s planned conference, on the basis that the party is in crisis.
It would not be in the political interests of Ramaphosa to have a special national conference, or to bring forward the national conference, as it would imply his leadership of the ANC is in crisis. Getting the go-ahead for either option would signal a victory for the Magashule group.
Since the NEC is dominated by Ramaphosa, it is unlikely that the Magashule faction could persuade the NEC to call for a special or early national conference.
This notwithstanding, the reality is that ANC branches and provinces are in such disarray, they do not have the capacity to organise a national conference either this year or the next.
Remaining in his position as secretary general will help Magashule to mobilise branches and provinces behind him. Yesterday, 68 ANC branches in KwaZulu-Natal who support Magashule and Zuma called for Magashule to be reinstated and for the ANC NEC to be disbanded.
Magashule and his supporters have also called for ANC NEC meetings to be held in person — so they can ambush Ramaphosa, disrupt meetings and render the NEC unable to work, similar to what Zuma supporters did to Mbeki in the run-up to the ANC’s 2007 Polokwane national conference.
Magashule, as part of his Stalingrad strategy, is likely to appeal his suspension in the courts if internal ANC appeal processes go against him, hoping that as his appeal meanders through the legal system, he will still be able to operate as secretary-general.
Ramaphosa will have to counter Magashule’s Stalingrad tactics if he is to win a long war of attrition, rather than just isolated battles, against the Magashule/Zuma populist faction.
William Gumede is associate professor, School of Governance, University of the Witwatersrand; and author of Restless Nation: Making Sense of Troubled Times (Tafelberg).
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