The rise, decline and rise and rise of Gauteng's power man

Mondli Makhanya: As with everything in this age, it all goes back to Polokwane. So we will return to Polokwane to try to understand some of the dynamics underlying the most seismic cabinet shift in South Africa's democratic life.

It was in those muddy days of Thabo Mbeki and Jacob Zuma, then two oxen in the ANC kraal, that the seeds of this week's reshuffle were sown. And there was one particular seed that was significant in all this sowing.

Not since the late '20s and early '30s had the organisation seen such turmoil and division. All could see only the permanent damage this state of affairs could do. As battle lines hardened, so did the resolve of those in the middle who wanted to find ... well, a middle way.

A group of senior leaders tried to convince the oxen it was in the interests of the ANC to step aside and let the next generation contest positions. They were sent packing.

Enter the so-called Third Way, a group of ANC members who had the same intentions as their elders. Although the initiatives were not necessarily connected, their outcome - had either been successful - would have benefited the 50-something leaders in the ANC.

The Third Way had its kernel in Gauteng which, although not the biggest province numerically, wields influence beyond its size.

Initially, the Third Way lot were not necessarily united behind any particular figure, but as time went by they found themselves drawn to Tokyo Sexwale. The businessman had been the party's Gauteng leader and provincial premier and had long-standing relationships with leading members of the Third Way.

It is now history that even though those who formed the Third Way held leadership positions in the province, Gauteng ended up backing the Zuma camp. The delivery of the Third Way vote gave its originators and its candidate clout in Polokwane, as they were able to bargain on the conference floor.

This influence stood the Third Way's main progenitor, Paul Mashatile, in good stead. But it was to be his Achilles heel - and of those around him.

Because Third Way members had not been fully encamped in Zuma's kraal before Polokwane, Mashatile and his sidekicks were treated with some suspicion.

His provincial nemesis, then- education MEC Angie Motshekga, had spared nothing in her support for Zuma, even bunking work to support him in court. Mashatile's future rival, Nomvula Mokonyane, had also played her cards wisely and made sure the lensmen caught her in the correct Zuma moments.

So it was no surprise then that, come April 2009, Mashatile found himself shunted to a junior post in a junior ministry, instead of being made premier of Africa's economic turbo-engine. His allies found themselves on the margins, being "dealt with" for their association with him. He was tickets. Or so conventional wisdom had it.

Newly crowned premier Mokonyane had her hands on the province's steering wheel and was going to use this to consolidate her power.

Meanwhile, behind the scenes, the Mashatile lot were working to cement their hold on the party which - as we have learnt in contemporary South Africa - is where the real power lies.

Mashatile's routing of Mokonyane's ill-advised bid for the provincial party chairmanship is well canvassed. Through this, he put Mokonyane in her place and showed her who the capo di tutti capi was in the province.

He also sent a message to Mahlambandlovu, Luthuli House and whoever else would listen, that he was not a spent force. This was to be seen in the run-up to the ANC's national general conference, where he and the province played a key role in preventing the gathering from becoming an all-out bun fight. He was instrumental in getting the provincial office holders to move the NGC to sort of sing from the same hymn sheet. Had this not been done, the NGC may have dished up a huge humiliation for Zuma. Instead, he was lauded for asserting his hold on the party.

Mashatile's re-ascendancy comes at a time when Zuma himself is rather weak in the ANC and is unsure of his party future beyond 2012. The president fears being ousted at the 2012 Mangaung conference and, like Mbeki in his final years, has become quite a paranoid schemer.

In this scheming it was inevitable Zuma would seek to neutralise those he fears may hold the keys to his demise, and thus perhaps prolong his life. He recognises the power that lies in the hands of the Gauteng chairman and the machinery he has built around him. So Mashatile had to get a full cabinet post - which may not be his last stop in the national executive in this term of government.

Much has been said and written about Mashatile's probity. A lot has been said about the stranglehold he and his posse have over Gauteng's economic wellbeing. There have been whispers about their methods of holding and wielding power. But one thing that can be said for certain is that, in observing South Africa's political future, this is the man to watch. Closely. The president knows this.