Cabinet reshuffle: David Makhura and Paul Mashatile tipped, but will DD Mabuza exit?

Deputy president David Mabuza’s future hangs in the balance while former Gauteng premier David Makhura is expected to be one of the new ministers in the anticipated cabinet reshuffle.

TimesLIVE previously reported the ANC was discussing Mabuza's future as the country's deputy president after he was not elected as the party's deputy president at its 55th national elective conference in December. Paul Mashatile, the party's new deputy president, is now tipped to become the country's second-in-command.

Political analyst Prof Dirk Kotze said the cabinet reshuffle might be delayed as some members of the ANC’s national executive committee (NEC) are not MPs. Some ANC MPs would have to resign for President Cyril Ramaphosa to appoint recently elected ANC leaders as members of the executive council.

This is the case with Mashatile, who is not an MP. Kotze said this would make it difficult for Ramaphosa to appoint him as the deputy president of the country.

“There is a chance that Mabuza will finish his term because replacing him will be a bit more difficult. This has happened before when Kgalema Motlanthe was not re-elected as deputy president of the ANC. He continued until his term came to an end in 2014.”

If Ramaphosa decided to keep Mabuza, he could still appoint Mashatile as a minister to fill the vacancy left by transport minister Fikile Mbalula, who has been elected ANC secretary-general, a full-time position at Luthuli House.

The other vacancy was that of public service and administration minister previously occupied by Ayanda Dlodlo, who left last year to take up a position in the World Bank in Washington. Minister of employment and labour Thulas Nxesi has been acting in Dlodlo’s place.

Ministers likely to retain their jobs

Kotze said finance minister Enoch Godongwana was among those likely not to lose their jobs in a cabinet reshuffle. “Godongwana has now a strong established position in the finance ministry. He will remain in his position.”

ANC chairperson and minister of energy and minerals, Gwede Mantashe is also among those likely to remain in their positions. ANC insiders say Mantashe fights for Ramaphosa and wields much power within the party.

Ministers heading for retirement?

Kotze said minister of international relations and co-operation Naledi Pandor, who will be turning 70 years old, would likely retire after finishing her term in 2024. Minister of public enterprises Pravin Gordhan (turning 74 in April) was also in the same boat.

“They are the two oldest members of the cabinet and would most probably retire.

“The ministry of public enterprises will not just disappear because there is still some work to be done to phase it out. Either now or with next year’s elections Gordhan will retire as a minister and will not stand again,” Kotze suggested.

He said Gordhan could also be axed in the cabinet reshuffle because “he is not very active as a minister any more and I do not think that he is making the same contribution to the cabinet like in the past.

“He is clearly on his way out.”

Pandor and Gordhan were also not elected as members of the ANC's NEC.

Ministers who will be axed?

Minister of co-operative governance and traditional affairs Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma and minister of tourism Lindiwe Sisulu would probably be axed, Kotze said.

“Dlamini-Zuma and Lindiwe Sisulu effectively disqualified themselves. It would really be a surprise if they continue in the cabinet.”

Dlamini-Zuma and Sisulu contested against Ramaphosa for the position of party president and lost.

The cabinet has a year and a few months to finish its term before the 2024 national elections.

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