Kevin Lerena must transform his underdog status to his advantage

Kevin Lerena will step into the ring against Daniel Dubois as the underdog in London on Saturday night, but the good news is South African fighters have sprung shocks through the years. 

Upsetting fistic apple carts is as South African as boerewors and pap, with a healthy splash of tomato relish. 

Just think of Corrie Sanders, who like Lerena was a left-handed heavyweight, demolishing Wladimir Klitschko in 2003 and Baby Jake Matlala stopping the once fearsome Michael Carbajal in 1997, and even Brian Mitchell dethroning Alfredo Layne in 1986. 

Several people had written off Gerrie Coetzee when he took on Michael Dokes in 1983, given that he lost two previous cracks at the WBA heavyweight crown against John Tate in 1979 and Mike Weaver in 1980, but he made it third time lucky by knocking the American out. 

Lerena, who has campaigned at cruiserweight for most of his career, officially stepped up to heavyweight two bouts ago and there are questions over whether he will pack enough power to worry the Englishman who holds the WBA regular heavyweight belt. 

In his last outing, Lerena clobbered Mariusz Wach on the button a few times and the Pole barely blinked, but Lerena wasn’t disheartened by that.

“Wladimir Klitschko hit Wach with the biggest right hands and he didn’t go down. Klitschko — he’s got 53 knockouts,” said Lerena.  

“Martin Bakole, who’s one of the biggest punchers in the heavyweight division, hit him with everything. The ref stopped the fight in the 10th round with Wach standing on his feet. 

“Dillian Whyte couldn’t put him away. Does that mean Whyte doesn’t have power? Wach is one of the guys in the division with a granite chin. 

Still, Lerena’s record of 28 wins, 14 stoppages and one defeat doesn’t suggest he’s much of a banger, and history doesn’t help him either. 

Michael Moorer notched up 21 stoppage wins as a light-heavyweight, one division lighter than cruiserweight. In his 31 heavyweight wins after that, 12 went the distance for a KO rate of 61%.  

Evander Holyfield stepped up from cruiserweight where he had a knockout ratio of 76% (13 out of 17). In his 27 wins as a heavyweight after that he ended matters early on 18 occasions, 66% of the time.

But lacking power is not necessarily a train smash.

South African upsets have included points victories, like when Vuyani Bungu outboxed Kennedy McKinney, an American 1988 Olympic gold medallist who had dethroned the Mdantsane fighter’s stablemate Welcome Ncita. 

That 1994 triumph at the Carousel casino, north of Pretoria, was arguably the biggest upset involving a South African fighter. 

Lerena at least seemed to beat Dubois during verbal sparring at a press conference this week, and when he offered his hand after doing a stare-down for the cameras, the Englishman refused to shake it. 

The South African will be the shorter, lighter man in the ring, but he’s looking to be the quicker of the two — he’ll need to be. 

Dubois can punch, having dispensed 17 of his 18 victims.

Lerena, who has never been down in his career, took a few shots from Wach. 

“I got hit because I wasn’t moving my head. There was a lapse of concentration. I can’t [do that against Dubois]. Not at that level, not against a puncher like that.”

Lerena will have to rely on his speed, high work rate and awkward southpaw stance to win this bout.

Would a Lerena win be South Africa's biggest upset victory? No. 

Dubois, though being the title-holder, doesn’t have the standing of fighters such as McKinney, Klitschko and possibly even a jaded Carbajal. In his only loss he was stopped in the late rounds by Joe Joyce, who stopped the capable Joseph Parker in his last fight. 

The only certainty is that the fight, on the same stage as WBC king Tyson Fury’s defence against Derek Chisora, will elevate the winner into the big time. 

It has been nearly 20 years since South Africa has had a world heavyweight champion. Now would be a good time for Lerena to make his mark. 

Support independent journalism by subscribing to the Sunday Times. Just R20 for the first month.