Maths of the title: what Sundowns need to do to clinch the Premiership

As things stand on the DStv Premiership log, Mamelodi Sundowns need seven more points or two wins and a draw to mathematically wrap up the 2022-23 title.

Of course, that equation is formed in relation to second-placed SuperSport United winning their next three matches, a not completely unlikely scenario, given Gavin Hunt’s team have earned three points in each of their last three league games.

Runaway leaders Sundowns (56 points from 22 games) have a 17-point gap over Matsatsantsa (39 from 22) as the Brazilians face Royal AM at Loftus Versfeld on Tuesday night (7.30pm) in their eighth-last fixture before the May conclusion to the league.

Depending on results around them — and Downs maintaining their devastating winning form — Rulani Mokwena's team could wrap up the title in the next three weeks.

There is also a chance of the process of Sundowns’ inevitable crowning being prolonged. The start of the Caf Champions League group stages means the Pretoria billionaires are competing on three fronts — one involving arduous travel and conditions — in the run-in to the end of the campaign. They are also in the Nedbank Cup quarterfinals.

Already, the mildest of cracks showed in their domestic form as Sundowns, with Mokwena resting many front-line players, were held to a 1-1 draw by Stellenbosch FC in the Cape two weekends ago, bringing to an end a 15-match league-record run.

Downs put in a serious shift dispatching 10-time Champions League winners Al Ahly 5-2 at Loftus on Saturday to ensure they top Group B and are all but guaranteed a place in the quarterfinals.

With a short turnaround to the game against Royal, even a side with Sundowns’ depth will do well to earn a second big win in four days. With three points though, edging the Brazilians closer to their sixth successive title, there is plenty of motivation to raise themselves for the battle too.

After the Royal game Sundowns will have a keen eye on Saturday’s big league fixture in the battle for second place. If third-placed Orlando Pirates (34 points from 22 games) beat SuperSport United at Orlando Stadium, that would leave Matsatsantsa still second and still on 39 points, but from 23 games.

The maximum finish for SuperSport could then be 60 points.

Assuming Downs beat Royal, the Brazilians (who would then be on 59 points from 23 games) would be left needing two points — so three from a win at home to Cape Town City on April 1 would do it — to clinch the title mathematically.

Even a draw against City would take them to 60 points, meaning SuperSport (who have a +10 goal difference now) would have to win all their last seven games by big margins and Sundowns (+32 now) lose all theirs for the Brazilians to lose the title.

Also being watched by Sundowns fans is the Premiership record in the 16-team format of 71 points set by the Brazilians under Pitso Mosimane in 2015-16.

If Sundowns win their remaining eight matches to gain a maximum 24 points from those games they can reach 80 points, meaning not just the 16-team record, but even the 18-club mark of 75, remain at risk.

Sundowns in 1998-99 and 1999-2000 and Kaizer Chiefs in 1998-99 (ending as runners-up to Downs on goal difference) reached 75 points in the 18-team Premiership.

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