'Safe' Nigeria scalps SA pioneers

Nigeria is now officially Africa's largest economy, but why are South African companies so often wrong-footed when they venture into that country?

This week provided yet another example of a local company getting its sums in Nigeria badly wrong.

Tiger Brands wrote off the R849-million in "goodwill and intangibles" it had invested in Dangote Flour Mills in Nigeria two years ago.

This impairment means that Tiger Brands's earnings a share will drop by 50% to 55%.

This week, MTN said it would spend $3-billion upgrading its network in Nigeria to appease regulators, who banned it from selling SIM cards for a month because of "poor service". Its profits were smacked when it was forced to shut down in northern Nigeria.

But the importance of Nigeria to MTN can't be overstated: MTN Nigeria contributes 49% to the cellular group's earnings despite the fact that it operates in 18 other countries.

The Boko Haram kidnappings made news across the world, and some South African companies are now reconsidering their plans to invest in Africa's largest economy.

In recent days, life assurance giant Liberty revealed it was "revisiting" its plans to invest in Nigeria.

The issue occupying the minds of investment managers now is whether Nigeria is "safe".

Charlie Robertson, Renaissance Capital global chief economist, said that if you define "safe" by investment returns, then Nigeria is certainly a better bet than South Africa.

Robertson dismissed the deadly bombings in Nigeria as "not very relevant".

"When I Google search 'Why is South Africa so...' - the auto-complete is 'violent'. I don't get that answer for Nigeria," he said.

There are 100 South African companies operating in Nigeria.

Robertson said that if local companies waited until Nigeria was "safe" they would find the costs of investing higher than they are today.

Ernst & Young's Henry Egbiki said the facts supported the notion that Nigeria had few peers on the continent when it came to investment.

New foreign direct investment (FDI) projects in Nigeria have grown 20% a year since 2007, which positions Nigeria as one of the top 10 fastest-growing African countries.

In his report, A Focus on Nigeria, which was released after the World Economic Forum in Abuja this month, Egbiki says Nigeria attracted the most FDI capital and the second-most FDI projects in sub-Saharan Africa over those five years.

Franklin Templeton Investments's emerging markets guru, Mark Mobius, said he did not believe "even such a hideous act of terrorism should dislodge Nigeria's path to future economic growth".

Other South African investors have fewer concerns. Famous Brands CEO Kevin Hedderwick said he planned to open 10 new Mr Biggs restaurants in Nigeria.

DHL Express Nigeria country manager Randy Buday said that while perceived risks may be high, the rewards were as high since Nigerians were discerning consumers and paid for quality products and services.

Massmart's presence in Nigeria is primarily in southern Nigeria where it has two Game stores. The unrest has apparently not deterred its ambitions to expand in the country.

Shoprite has seven supermarkets in Nigeria. Although its CEO, Whitey Basson, declined to comment on the recent volatility in the West African country, the company stated that the country remained a key focus for the group.

At its results presentation, Basson said Nigeria was on the threshold of solid growth, and that three more supermarkets would be opened.

Liberty still studying tricky Nigerian scene

The billion rand set aside for expansion is burning a hole in the pocket of Liberty Holdings's new boss, Thabo Dloti.

Dloti's dilemma is that he desperately wants the life company to set up shop in Nigeria, but the lack of options as well as the new wave of terror attacks make it tricky.

"We continue seeking acquisitions. We continue pressing hard to get an acquisition this year," said Dloti.

Liberty, which controls Stanlib, is keen to acquire an asset-management business as well as an insurance business.

But it's proved tough to find a business that fits the bill.

"What's been difficult for us is to find a substantial business to buy. So we had to adjust our expectations," Dloti said.

But Dloti's discomfort was clear when he emphasised that while Liberty won't be delaying plans to enter Nigeria, he is worried about the violent attacks in the country and the ripple effects on the economy.

Already, Liberty has walked away from three possible deals, following in the footsteps of FirstRand, which walked away from a deal to buy Nigeria's Sterling Bank in 2011.

Most businesses that South African JSE-listed companies tried to buy in Nigeria are privately run and not accountable to shareholder scrutiny.

Dloti said that some Nigerian companies were simply reluctant to be run along the lines of a South African business. Another issue was how to value those Nigerian companies.

South Africa-Nigeria Chamber of Commerce CEO Dianna Games said investors needed to do due diligence and scrutinise their partners, competitors and the business landscape before putting down cash.