Easier, cheaper air travel unlikely to take off soon

Stubbornly high international airfares may be here to stay, with costly jet fuel prices, a shortage of pilots and a surge in demand to blame.

International flight prices have tripled since the pandemic, with lockdowns and travel bans having served as a huge disruption that caused a shutdown of the skies for more than a year, with efforts to restore and repair the industry taking time because of ongoing ripple effects. 

“The driving factor is the sky-high costs of jet fuel, spurred on by the Ukraine conflict, with the price having doubled since 2019. The impact is compounded by exchange rates hitting the weakened rand and demand for seats outstripping supply,” said aviation expert Linden Birns. 

Another factor was a shortage of qualified pilots due to many having been laid off, pandemic deaths, better offers from other airlines and international aviation law not allowing any pilot to captain an international flight after the age 65 — meaning older pilots willing to stay on are compelled to fly domestic only. 

“The mothballing of planes has led to the difficult process of getting them back into the sky, which is complicated and lengthy. The early retiring of old fleets, rising labour costs and labour shortages are factors. Many skilled technicians laid off in Covid went on early retirement.

However, the labour shortage is global, so wealthy countries are plundering skills from poorer countries,” Birns said.

“Britain recently recruited a large team of air traffic controllers from South Africa, luring them with packages of £85,000 [about R1.85m] a year to work in the UK.”

Birns said a summer boom in international travel across Europe and the US in June to August last year had caused a chaotic situation that led to a capping of flights due to staff shortages as the industry struggled. 

Another factor mentioned by the Board of Airline Representatives of South Africa (Barsa) was visa requirements — with South Africa’s visa requirements and backlogs costing its tourism industry billions. Again, this is a global phenomenon as many countries grapple with the issue. 

“The US embassy in Kenya announced that it will not be taking any new visa applications until 2024 because of its backlog,” said Birns. 

Otto de Vries, CEO of the Association of Southern African Travel Agents, said the country had lost many pilots to the US because of SAA going into business rescue and the global demand for Boeing 737 captains.  

“The challenges are not unique to South Africa, but even here premium-class seats are fully booked despite insane prices,” De Vries said. 

He travels to Geneva or Madrid on average four times a year on one international airline. 

“Before Covid a business-class ticket cost between R28,000 and R40,000. Now, you cannot find one for less than R100,000,” he said.

“Consumers are feeling the pain, but as capacity ramps up, people will calm down and hopefully the impact will lessen. As more old planes are brought back and seasonal market demands kick in, airlines will hopefully adjust to demands and subsidise flight prices through other profits,” De Vries said. 

Sue Garrett, GM of supply, pricing and marketing at Flight Centre Travel Group, suggested that those looking for the best deals on international flights book as early as possible and be flexible on dates. 

She predicts some normalising of prices later this year, though she does not envision anything close to 2019 prices.

She said there had been increased interest in African travel destinations such as Botswana and Victoria Falls in Zimbabwe, indicating that people were moving away from expensive long-haul flights. 

Aviation specialist and transport economist Joachim Vermooten said: “There has been an important structural change with regard to the economies of wide-bodied [twin-aisle] aircraft operations.

A large volume of time-sensitive international travellers is making use of videoconferencing as a means of communication.

This reduced demand for high-priced international business travel which is no longer able to cross-subsidise the pricing of economy seating in wide-bodied aircraft as was the case before lockdown.” 

George Mothema, CEO of Barsa, the representative association of all international airlines operating in South Africa, said post-pandemic global passenger capacity had reached 95% in 2022 and was set to hit 104% by 2024, while in South Africa the recovery of international flights had picked up from 76% in December to 78% in January this year, according to the latest available numbers. 

He said because Africa constituted only 2.5% of global passenger traffic, it meant the continent had the most to gain by making air travel easier, cheaper and safer. 

South Africa’s biggest challenges, he said, were the fuel and electricity crises, a lack of financial support from the government and increasing pressure from other regional hubs such as Addis Ababa in Ethiopia, Dubai in the United Arab Emirates and Doha in Qatar.