They then compared the two analyses as if vaccinations had not been delivered.
The model estimated that over 18-million deaths would have occurred without vaccination and around 14-million deaths had been prevented by the vaccine.
“Based on our model fit to officially reported Covid-19 deaths, we estimated that 18.1-million (95% credible interval [CrI] 17.4—19.7) deaths due to Covid-19 would have occurred without vaccinations worldwide during the first year of the Covid-19 vaccination programme.
“Of these, we estimated that vaccination prevented 14.4-million (95% CrI 13.7—15.9) deaths due to Covid-19 representing a global reduction of 79% of deaths (14.4=million of 18.1- million) during the first year of Covid-19 vaccination. These estimates of vaccine impact do not account for the potential under-ascertainment of deaths related to Covid-19.”
Last week WHO director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said: “More than 60% of the world’s population has now completed a primary course of vaccination against Covid-19.”
He said on Wednesday that in the past 18 months, more than 12-billion vaccines have been distributed around the world, with 75% of the world’s health workers and over-60s now vaccinated.
“On the flip side, hundreds of millions of people, including tens of millions of health workers and older people in lower-income countries remain unvaccinated, which means they are more vulnerable to future waves of the virus,” he added.
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