Four reasons why underdogs Kaizer Chiefs will stun Pirates

Kaizer Chiefs are the underdogs in Saturday's Soweto derby at FNB Stadium (3.30pm), as they were in the game they won in October, a not unusual outcome of the unpredictable match where results often go against form.

Neither Chiefs nor Orlando Pirates have been models of consistency in 2022-2023, but Bucs have shown greater signs of it recently with five wins from five matches in all competitions. Chiefs have won two, lost four and drawn one from seven.

TimesLIVE examines four reasons why Amakhosi will prevail despite that statistic:

1. Form counts for little in the derby

It's the hype in the build-up and mostly the crowd that sways the derby from following any kind of form. It's all about which team responds better to playing in front of 65,000-90,000 people on the day.

With the result so often bucking form, unpredictable Chiefs, in front of a crowd that is usually at least 60% theirs, are entirely capable of running out winners. In October it was a mostly dominant display and Yusuf Maart 's remarkable strike from inside his half that settled the game and there's no reason Amakhosi won't repeat such a feat.

2. Chiefs have been dominant in recent derbies

While Amakhosi have been inconsistent in recent form against everyone else, in the derby in the league they've established a dominance against their arch-foes.

Amakhosi have won the past four Premiership clashes — 1-0 on October 29 2022; 2-1 on March 5 2022; 2-1 on November 6 2021 and 1-0 on March 21 2021. The last time Bucs won a league derby (2-1) was on January 30 2021, more than two years ago.

3. The bounce-back factor

Players tend to rally around popular coaches when the pressure is on the boss. Arthur Zwane has received increasing flak as Amakhosi linger in fifth place and battle to get a run together. The coach was booed by fans after the weekend's 3-2 defeat to Golden Arrows in Polokwane.

Pirates are coming off a win — 2-1 against Maritzburg United at Orlando Stadium on Friday. Many derbies have gone to the team coming off a defeat. If Zwane's promoted development products he mentored when he was under-18 and reserve team coach at Naturena rally behind him, the bounce-back factor could swing the game for Amakhosi.

4. Chiefs have derby debutants with a point to prove

New Democratic Republic of the Congo striker Christian Saile has provided plenty of touches in his first four games that indicate the muscular, pacy runner can become a real handful in the Premiership. Mduduzi Shabalala's eight-match introduction in 2022-2023 has had supporters purring over the potential of the skilful 19-year-old academy product.

Both are set to make their derby debuts and will be keyed up to prove a point playing in front of the FNB cauldron for the first time. That can backfire as players try to overdo things. Many others have made their names in derbies. Chiefs' supporters will hope it's the latter on Saturday.

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